Brent Crude Holds Above $100 for Eighth Straight Week on Iran Conflict

Why is Brent crude still above $100 a barrel?

Brent crude closed at $103.76 per barrel April 23, up 1.8% on the day and marking the eighth consecutive week the international benchmark has traded above $100. The price swung between roughly $101 and $106 overnight before settling near the top of that range.

The sustained elevation stems from the ongoing Iran conflict, which has kept Middle Eastern supply routes uncertain and global oil markets tight. For small fleets, the number that matters is diesel — which tracks Brent with a lag of roughly one to three weeks depending on regional refining capacity. A barrel above $100 typically translates to retail diesel in the $4.20 to $4.50 range at the pump, though regional spreads can push that higher in the Northeast and California.

What the $103.76 close means for fuel costs

Every dollar per barrel of Brent crude adds roughly 2.4 cents to the retail price of a gallon of diesel, assuming normal refining margins. At $103.76, fleets are paying approximately 24 cents more per gallon than they would at the $93-per-barrel level Brent held in early February, before the conflict escalated. A truck running 120,000 miles annually at 6.5 mpg burns about 18,460 gallons — that 24-cent delta costs the truck an extra $4,430 over the year, or $369 per month.

Fuel surcharges have climbed in step, but not uniformly. Shippers with contracts tied to the Department of Energy's weekly diesel index are passing through the increase with a one-week lag. Spot loads often carry no surcharge at all, leaving owner-operators to absorb the full swing. Dispatchers booking loads this week should verify surcharge terms before accepting — a load that paid $2.10 per mile all-in three months ago may need $2.18 today just to cover the fuel delta, before accounting for any rate improvement.

How long crude stays elevated

Brent has now spent eight weeks above the $100 threshold, the longest stretch since mid-2022. The overnight trading range — $101 to $106 — suggests the market sees a floor near $100 but no immediate catalyst to push meaningfully higher unless the Iran situation worsens or a major supply disruption hits. Analysts surveyed in late March expected Brent to average $98 for the second quarter; the actual average through April 23 is running closer to $102.

For small fleets, the planning assumption should be diesel at or above $4.30 through at least mid-May. Fuel hedging remains expensive — diesel futures for June delivery are trading at a premium to spot, meaning locking in a price today costs more than paying cash at the pump. Fleets running thin margins may find more relief in route optimization and load consolidation than in trying to time the fuel market.

The settlement-statement impact

A five-truck fleet running 600,000 miles annually will spend roughly $22,150 more on fuel in 2026 if diesel averages $4.35 versus the $3.85 it averaged in late 2025 — assuming 6.5 mpg and no change in surcharge recovery. That works out to $1,846 per month, or $369 per truck. Fleets that locked in fuel cards with a 3-cent or 5-cent discount in January are seeing that discount eroded by the 24-cent-per-gallon climb since February.

Owner-operators leased to carriers with fuel-included programs are insulated from the per-gallon swing but may see lower settlement checks if the carrier adjusts the all-in rate to reflect higher fuel costs. Dispatchers should compare fuel-included offers against traditional percentage splits plus surcharge to confirm which structure leaves more in the driver's pocket at current diesel prices.

What changes for small fleets

Brent above $100 for two months running is no longer a spike — it is the new baseline until the Iran conflict resolves or global demand softens. Fleets should budget fuel at $4.30 to $4.50 per gallon through the second quarter and negotiate fuel surcharges on every contract load. Spot loads without surcharge protection are only viable if the base rate compensates for the fuel cost — a $2.00-per-mile load that worked in February does not work in April unless the shipper is covering the delta.

For fleets considering equipment purchases, the fuel price environment strengthens the case for newer, more efficient trucks. A 2026 model averaging 7.2 mpg versus an older truck at 6.5 mpg saves roughly 1,300 gallons annually per truck at 120,000 miles — worth $5,590 at $4.30 per gallon. That savings can offset a portion of the higher payment on a newer unit, though the math only works if the truck stays busy enough to hit the mileage target.