Brent Crude Up 11% for the Week — Closes at $109.88
International oil benchmark gained roughly 11% over five trading days despite Friday slip, keeping diesel costs elevated for small fleets.
Brent crude closed Friday at $109.88 per barrel, down 0.5% on the day but still up roughly 11% for the week ending May 1.
Why did Brent crude jump 11% this week?
The weekly gain marks the sharpest five-day climb since mid-March, when Iran conflict escalation first pushed crude above $100. The $109.88 Friday close puts Brent $6.12 higher than the prior Friday's settlement and more than double the $52 average Brent traded at in 2019.
For a five-truck fleet running 2,500 miles per week per truck at 6.5 mpg, an 11% oil price jump translates to roughly $85 more in weekly diesel spend if pump prices track crude with the typical two-week lag. That assumes diesel moves proportionally — historically it overshoots crude on the way up and lags on the way down.
What the $109.88 close means for diesel costs
Diesel futures typically follow Brent with a 10-to-14-day delay. The 11% weekly crude gain suggests pump diesel could climb 30 to 40 cents per gallon by mid-May if refining margins hold steady. National diesel averaged $4.12 per gallon as of April 30 — an 8-cent weekly drop — but that price reflects crude trading in the $103-to-$105 range two weeks prior. The $109.88 close has not yet hit the pump.
Owner-operators who locked fuel cards or negotiated all-in rates before this week's crude surge will see settlement relief through mid-May. Those running spot or paying retail will absorb the full increase.
How long Brent stays above $109
The Friday 0.5% slip suggests profit-taking after four straight days of gains, but the weekly trend remains sharply upward. Brent has now closed above $100 for nine consecutive weeks. The $109.88 level is the highest Friday settlement since March 2022, when Russia's Ukraine invasion sent crude to $130.
Small fleets planning fuel budgets should model diesel at $4.50 to $4.70 per gallon by Memorial Day if Brent holds above $108. A return to sub-$100 crude would take diesel back toward $3.80, but no source material indicates that move is imminent.
What this does to your fuel line
A 5-truck fleet running 12,500 combined miles per week at 6.5 mpg burns roughly 1,923 gallons. At $4.12 per gallon, that's $7,923 weekly. If diesel climbs to $4.50 by mid-May — tracking the 11% crude gain — the same mileage costs $8,654, a $731 weekly increase or $3,164 per month.
Fleets without fuel surcharge pass-through on contract lanes absorb that cost directly. Those running spot can push some of it back through higher all-in rates, but only if spot rates rise faster than diesel — a condition that has not held since late 2022.
