Contract Rates Up 8% Since Fall as Capacity Stays Tight Through Mid-Year

Why are contract rates climbing in May 2026?

Long-term contract rates are up roughly 8% since last fall, with further increases likely as shippers rely more on secondary capacity amid persistent tightness, according to the May 2026 State of the Industry Report presented in affiliation with Ryder. Spot and contract rates are both rising as capacity stays constrained, with tender rejection rates still elevated — signaling continued pricing pressure through mid-year.

The 8% contract-rate climb since last fall marks a sustained reversal from the soft-rate environment that dominated 2023 and much of 2024. Shippers are now locking in higher rates to secure capacity, and carriers with contract commitments are seeing those increases flow through to settlement statements. Spot rates are climbing alongside contract rates, reinforcing the pricing floor.

Tender rejection rates remain elevated, a signal that carriers are turning down awarded loads because they can find better-paying freight elsewhere. When rejection rates stay high, shippers typically respond by raising contract rates or turning to the spot market — both of which push per-mile revenue higher for carriers willing to take the loads.

What's driving the capacity crunch

Capacity has stayed constrained even as freight volumes hold steady. The report notes that tight truckload conditions and attractive rate spreads are driving strong domestic intermodal growth, supported by improved service levels and available container capacity. That shift pulls some volume off the road, but it also reflects the fact that truck capacity is tight enough to make rail competitive on price and service.

U.S. manufacturing activity has returned to expansion, supporting flatbed, rail, and LTL demand despite broader economic mixed signals. Retail and consumer spending continue to hold up, even as inflation and energy costs pressure sentiment, helping sustain freight volumes in the near term. The combination of manufacturing growth and stable consumer demand is keeping freight moving, but the carrier base hasn't expanded to match.

The result: carriers with clean authority, good safety scores, and reliable equipment are in position to negotiate. Shippers who waited out the soft market are now paying more to lock in capacity, and the May report suggests that pricing pressure will persist through mid-year.

Diesel volatility complicates the rate picture

Diesel prices have been highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, complicating rate signals and reinforcing the need for cost and risk management strategies. Fuel surcharges tied to the Department of Energy's weekly diesel index help offset some of the volatility, but rapid swings in pump prices can still squeeze margins between the time a load is quoted and the time fuel is purchased.

For owner-operators and small fleets running on thin margins, diesel volatility turns an 8% contract-rate increase into a moving target. A $0.50-per-gallon swing in diesel can erase several cents per mile in net revenue, especially on longer hauls where fuel is a larger share of total cost. Carriers who locked in contracts during a diesel trough may find that fuel cost increases eat into the rate gains by summer.

The report does not provide a specific diesel price or percentage change, but the emphasis on geopolitical sensitivity suggests that fuel cost remains a live risk for carriers planning the next quarter.

Intermodal and ocean freight add context

While global ocean capacity remains oversupplied, routing disruptions and energy costs are supporting rates, keeping shippers cautious on import planning. That caution has kept import volumes below prior peaks — import volumes sit 36% below the 2021 peak — which means the current rate recovery is driven more by domestic freight and capacity discipline than by a surge in inbound container drayage.

Domestic intermodal is growing because truck rates are high enough to make rail competitive, and because rail service has improved. For small fleets that don't haul intermodal, the takeaway is that some of the freight you used to compete for is now moving by rail — but the freight that remains on the road is paying better.

What this means for a 5-truck fleet

If you're running under contract, the 8% rate increase since last fall should be showing up in your settlements by now — or will be when contracts renew. If you're still seeing flat rates, that's a signal to renegotiate or walk. Elevated tender rejection rates mean other carriers are turning down loads to chase better-paying freight, and shippers know it.

If you're running spot, the combination of rising contract rates and tight capacity means spot rates are climbing too. The risk is diesel: a rate that looks good today can turn into a break-even load if fuel jumps $0.40 per gallon before you deliver. Lock in fuel where you can, and build a buffer into your rate quotes to cover volatility.

The report suggests pricing pressure will continue through mid-year. That's a window to lock in higher contract rates or to stay selective on the spot board. Capacity is tight, rejection rates are elevated, and shippers are paying more to secure trucks. The question for small fleets is whether to lock in the gains now or bet that rates climb further into summer.