Intermodal Volume Up 2.2% as Grain and Petroleum Lead Rail Gains

Why did intermodal volume rebound in mid-April?

Intermodal volume climbed 2.2% to 277,554 containers and trailers for the week ending April 18, pushing total U.S. rail traffic up 2.5% to 508,303 carloads and intermodal units. The gain nudged year-to-date traffic ahead of 2025 levels for the first time this year, with total combined traffic through 15 weeks at 7,505,182 carloads and intermodal units — up 1.6% year-over-year.

Total carloads rose 3% to 230,749 for the week. Grain led commodity gainers, up 22.9%, while petroleum and petroleum products climbed 15.5% as the Iran war whipsawed global prices. Eight of 10 carload commodity groups posted gains. Miscellaneous carloads dropped 10.1%, and coal fell 4.7%.

What the rail rebound means for truckload capacity

Intermodal's 2.2% weekly gain matters because containers moving by rail instead of truck tighten available truckload capacity on the same lanes. When intermodal volume climbs, fewer boxes compete for drayage slots at the ramps, but the lanes those containers would have traveled over-the-road see marginally less truck supply chasing the same freight. For small fleets running lanes that parallel major intermodal corridors — Chicago to LA, Dallas to Atlanta — a sustained intermodal uptick can translate to firmer spot rates as shippers shift more volume to rail and fewer trucks chase what's left on the board.

Year-to-date intermodal volume sits at 4,132,416 units, down 0.1% from 2025. The weekly gain is the first sustained uptick after 15 weeks of flat-to-negative comparisons. If the trend holds, owner-operators running drayage or short-haul feeder lanes into intermodal ramps may see steadier load counts through Q2.

Grain and petroleum swings tied to global disruptions

Grain's 22.9% jump reflects export demand and planting-season logistics. Petroleum's 15.5% climb ties directly to the Iran conflict, which has bottlenecked Middle Eastern crude flows and pushed Brent crude above $101 per barrel. Rail petroleum shipments — mostly crude oil and refined products moving from Gulf Coast refineries to inland terminals — spike when global supply tightens and domestic refiners ramp production to fill the gap.

For trucking, the petroleum rail surge has a dual effect: diesel prices climb as refinery output shifts to meet global demand, and tanker truck capacity tightens as more loads move by rail instead of over-the-road. Small fleets running fuel surcharge programs tied to the DOE index saw per-gallon costs jump 8–12 cents in the past month, eroding margins on fixed-rate contracts that don't adjust weekly.

Coal and miscellaneous carloads drag on total volume

Coal carloads fell 4.7% for the week, continuing a multi-year decline as utilities shift to natural gas and renewables. Miscellaneous carloads — a catch-all category that includes waste, scrap metal, and non-classified freight — dropped 10.1%. The miscellaneous decline often signals softness in industrial production and construction activity, which are leading indicators for flatbed and heavy-haul demand.

For fleets running coal country lanes — West Virginia to the Southeast, Powder River Basin to Texas — the 4.7% drop means fewer backhaul opportunities out of rail-served power plants. Owner-operators who relied on coal-adjacent freight for return loads are seeing thinner boards and longer deadhead miles.

North American volume climbs 4.7% on carload strength

Weekly North American volume on nine reporting U.S., Canadian, and Mexican railroads totaled 339,795 carloads, up 4.7% year-over-year, and 364,495 intermodal units. The cross-border carload strength reflects nearshoring demand — automotive parts, consumer goods, and raw materials moving between Mexican factories and U.S. distribution centers. Werner's recent launch of asset-based intermodal into Mexico cross-border lanes signals carriers are betting the nearshoring trend outlasts the current rate cycle.

For small fleets, the North American carload gain matters because cross-border rail volume competes directly with truckload capacity on the same lanes. When rail moves more automotive parts from Monterrey to Detroit, fewer trucks get the call. The 4.7% carload jump suggests shippers are shifting more cross-border freight to rail as truckload rates firm — a pattern that typically accelerates when spot rates climb above $2.00 per mile on high-volume lanes.

Year-to-date traffic narrows the gap with 2025

Through 15 weeks, U.S. railroads reported 3,372,766 carloads, up 3.9% year-over-year, and 4,132,416 intermodal units, down 0.1%. The carload strength and intermodal stabilization pushed combined traffic ahead by 1.6%, the first sustained year-over-year gain since Q4 2025. The narrowing gap suggests freight demand is firming after a soft winter, though intermodal's flat year-to-date performance shows the recovery is uneven.

For owner-operators, the year-to-date intermodal flatness means drayage volumes haven't returned to 2024 levels. Fleets running container moves out of LA-Long Beach or the Port of Savannah are still seeing load counts 5–8% below last year, even as spot rates on those lanes tick up. The disconnect — firmer rates, flat volume — reflects tighter truckload capacity more than surging demand.

What this means for small fleets running parallel lanes

Rail's 2.5% weekly gain and 1.6% year-to-date climb signal freight is shifting back to intermodal after a winter lull, which tightens truckload capacity on lanes where rail and truck compete. For a 10-truck fleet running Chicago to Dallas or Atlanta to LA, the intermodal rebound means fewer available trucks chasing the same spot loads, which should translate to firmer per-mile rates through Q2. The grain and petroleum surges — tied to export demand and the Iran conflict — also mean more rail capacity is spoken for, leaving less room for shippers to shift truckload freight to intermodal when spot rates climb.

The coal and miscellaneous carload declines are a warning sign for fleets running industrial and construction lanes. Fewer coal shipments mean thinner backhaul opportunities out of Appalachia and the Powder River Basin. The 10.1% miscellaneous drop suggests industrial production is softening, which typically precedes weaker flatbed and heavy-haul demand. Small fleets should watch carload trends in their home lanes — a sustained drop in rail carloads often precedes a truckload volume decline by 4–6 weeks.