LTL Rates Jump 12.5% Year-Over-Year — Sharpest Climb Since Yellow Exit

Less-than-truckload rates are climbing at the fastest pace since Yellow Corp shut down in summer 2023. The LTL monthly cost per hundredweight index — which tracks pricing momentum based on transactional data — shows rates running 12.5% higher than May 2025 and 29% above May 2021 levels.

Why are LTL rates climbing faster now than earlier this year?

The rate acceleration marks a sharp turn from the sluggish start to 2026. As new contract bids and general rate increases cycle through the market, carriers are locking in pricing at levels not seen since the immediate aftermath of Yellow's exit removed roughly 12% of national LTL capacity overnight.

The index does not mean every contract jumped simultaneously. It measures directional change as shippers renew agreements and carriers push through GRIs. The 12.5% year-over-year gain reflects the cumulative effect of those negotiations landing at higher price points than the same period in 2025.

Truckload contract rates, by comparison, remain flat. The van contract rate per mile initial report — which tracks newly signed full-truckload agreements — shows no meaningful movement over the past three months. That divergence underscores the structural tightness in LTL versus the persistent slack in the truckload spot and contract markets.

What the rate jump means for carriers running both LTL and truckload

For small fleets that handle both dedicated truckload lanes and LTL linehaul work, the pricing gap is widening. A carrier running a 10-truck operation with half the fleet on LTL linehaul contracts is seeing those lanes reprice 12% higher while truckload renewals hold flat or edge down. That split creates planning friction — LTL work is paying better per mile, but access requires terminal relationships and the operational discipline to hit tight pickup and delivery windows.

Owner-operators who haul LTL linehaul as independent contractors are feeling the rate lift in settlement checks, but only if their carrier partner is winning the repriced business. Carriers that locked in multi-year agreements before the Yellow collapse are still working through below-market contracts and may not pass the rate gain downstream until those deals roll off.

How long the pricing momentum holds

The May 2023 spike that followed Yellow's shutdown lasted roughly four months before flattening. This time, the rate climb is building more gradually — a sign that capacity absorbed Yellow's lanes and the current upward pressure comes from demand growth rather than a one-time supply shock.

LTL tonnage data from the major publicly traded carriers shows mixed signals. Some posted flat or declining tonnage in Q1 2026 while others reported modest gains. The rate increases are landing despite that volume uncertainty, which suggests shippers are accepting higher prices to secure capacity rather than pushing back and shifting freight to cheaper alternatives.

For a small fleet evaluating whether to add LTL linehaul work, the 12.5% rate premium over last year makes the operational investment — building terminal partnerships, meeting on-time performance standards, handling the paperwork — more financially viable than it was six months ago. The question is whether that premium sticks if truckload rates recover and pull drivers back into the spot market.

The 29% gain since 2021 and what it costs shippers

The 29% cumulative increase since May 2021 represents a permanent repricing of LTL service. Shippers who moved freight at pre-pandemic rates are now paying nearly a third more per hundredweight, even after accounting for fuel surcharges. That cost is flowing through to end customers in the form of higher logistics line items on invoices, tighter shipping windows, and more aggressive dimensional weight enforcement.

Carriers are using dimensioners on the dock to re-rate shipments that arrive larger than the shipper declared. Industry data shows roughly one in four LTL shipments get re-rated after dimensional scanning. The combination of higher base rates and stricter measurement enforcement means shippers who estimate dimensions rather than measure are seeing bills climb faster than the 12.5% headline figure.

For carriers, the rate environment is the strongest tailwind since Yellow exited, but it is not uniform. Regional carriers with dense networks in high-volume lanes are capturing the pricing power. Smaller LTL operators without the terminal footprint to offer next-day service in key markets are still competing on price and seeing slower rate gains.

What changes for a 5-truck fleet this quarter

If you run LTL linehaul under contract, expect repricing conversations when your agreement comes up for renewal. Carriers are pushing GRIs in the 8% to 12% range, and shippers are accepting them because capacity is tight enough that switching carriers mid-year carries execution risk. If you are on the truckload side, do not expect the same leverage — contract rates are flat and spot is still soft.

If you are evaluating new LTL linehaul work, the 12.5% rate premium over last year makes the operational investment pencil better than it did in Q1. The risk is that truckload rates recover later in 2026 and pull drivers back into the spot market, which would ease LTL capacity pressure and slow the rate climb. For now, the momentum is with LTL.