Knight-Swift CEO targets double-digit rate hikes for 2027 contracts
Adam Miller says truckload carriers have room to push pricing after absorbing years of cost increases during the freight downturn.
Will truckload carriers actually get double-digit rate increases in 2027?
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings CEO Adam Miller told investors October 21 the company is positioned to open 2027 contract negotiations with double-digit rate increases. The statement came after Knight-Swift reported third-quarter truckload revenues per total mile (excluding fuel surcharges) up 12% year-over-year, a five-point jump from Q2 and nearly five times the Q1 pace.
"I certainly feel like we're in a position to start with at least double-digit increases as we get going in this bid season," Miller said. "We'll see how the market progresses from here."
The Phoenix-based carrier, ranked No. 3 on the FleetOwner 500 list of largest for-hire fleets, is betting shippers will accept the pricing after capacity tightened through 2026. Miller acknowledged margins have improved but remain below historical up-cycle levels, leaving room for further rate recovery.
Carriers still catching up to cost inflation
Miller framed the rate push as recovery, not opportunism. Knight-Swift and other large carriers absorbed rising costs during the freight downturn that began in late 2022 and persisted through most of 2025. Insurance premiums, driver wages, and equipment costs all climbed while spot rates and contract rates fell.
"Our margins have improved meaningfully, but they're still nowhere near where they would be in the midst of an up cycle," Miller said. "So I think there's still a lot of room for that to run."
The comment signals carriers intend to recapture margin lost during the downturn, not just match current operating costs. That approach mirrors statements from J.B. Hunt Transport Services earlier in October, when EVP and President of Intermodal Darren Field told analysts pushing through rate increases is a top priority for the coming months.
What double-digit increases mean for small fleets
Knight-Swift's pricing confidence matters to owner-operators and small fleets because large carriers set the floor for contract rates. When a shipper agrees to a 10% or 12% increase with Knight-Swift, smaller carriers negotiating the same lane weeks later can point to that benchmark. The reverse is also true: if Knight-Swift settles for 5%, small fleets lose leverage.
Miller's "at least double-digit" language suggests Knight-Swift will walk away from shippers who refuse the increase rather than accept low single-digit gains. That stance only works if capacity remains tight enough that shippers cannot easily replace the carrier. The 12% year-over-year revenue-per-mile gain in Q3 indicates Knight-Swift has already been walking away from low-rate freight for at least two quarters.
Small fleets should watch whether Knight-Swift's bid-season results match Miller's October confidence. If the company reports in January that 2027 contract rates came in at 6% or 7%, the market did not support double-digit increases and owner-operators should adjust expectations accordingly. If Knight-Swift reports 10% to 12% gains, small fleets have a data point to use in their own shipper negotiations.
Bid season timing and what to track
Most large shippers finalize 2027 truckload contracts between November 2026 and February 2027. Knight-Swift's next earnings call in late January will be the first public test of whether Miller's double-digit target held. J.B. Hunt, Werner Enterprises, and Schneider National will report around the same time, giving small fleets a read on whether the entire large-carrier tier achieved similar increases or whether Knight-Swift's result was an outlier.
Owner-operators negotiating dedicated or long-term contracts with direct shippers in early 2027 should ask what the shipper agreed to with their primary carriers. If the shipper says their Knight-Swift or J.B. Hunt rate went up 11%, a 4% offer to a small fleet is a lowball. If the shipper says their primary carrier rate went up 5%, the small fleet's leverage is weaker.
Miller's comment that the rate recovery is in the "early innings" suggests Knight-Swift expects pricing power to persist beyond the 2027 bid season into spot-market and mid-year contract adjustments. Small fleets should track whether that confidence shows up in DAT or Truckstop spot rates through Q1 2027. If spot rates stay flat or decline while Knight-Swift reports double-digit contract gains, the pricing power is limited to the contract market and owner-operators relying on spot freight will not see the same recovery.
