Used Truck Sales Up 10% in March — Still Miss Seasonal Forecast

Why did used truck sales miss forecast despite a 10% year-over-year gain?

Used Class 8 truck sales climbed 10.2% in March to 24,900 units, up from 22,600 units in March 2025, according to ACT Research. Sales also rose 9.8% month-over-month from February's 22,700 units. Despite the gains, the March total fell short of ACT's seasonal forecast — a miss that signals weaker-than-expected spring buying activity even as year-over-year comparisons improve.

The 10% year-over-year increase marks the second consecutive month of positive comps after more than a year of depressed used truck volume. February's 22,700 units represented the first month-over-month uptick since late 2025, and March extended that trend. The sequential gain from February to March — roughly 2,200 units — tracks with typical seasonal patterns as fleets begin spring equipment refreshes and owner-operators look to add capacity ahead of produce season.

But the miss against ACT's forecast matters more than the year-ago comparison. Seasonal models account for the spring bump, and falling short of that baseline suggests demand remains softer than historical norms would predict. For small fleets weighing a used truck purchase, the implication is twofold: inventory remains elevated relative to buyer appetite, and pricing has not yet firmed enough to pull hesitant buyers off the sidelines.

What the volume miss means for used truck pricing

When sales volumes trail seasonal expectations, pricing typically softens or holds flat rather than firming. The March data does not include retail pricing figures, but Ryder's Q1 used truck sales beat forecast with stable retail pricing — a signal that higher volume has not yet translated into upward price pressure. For owner-operators shopping the used market, that means another month of buyer-favorable conditions: more inventory to choose from, less urgency to close a deal, and sellers still competing on price rather than dictating terms.

The 24,900-unit March total sits roughly in line with the depressed volume levels that have characterized the used truck market since mid-2024, when new truck deliveries flooded the market and pushed trade-in values down. Year-over-year gains look strong because March 2025 represented a trough — but the absolute number remains well below the 28,000 to 32,000 units per month that defined a balanced market in 2022 and early 2023.

How small fleets should read the spring buying trend

For a 5- or 10-truck fleet considering a used Class 8 purchase, the March data offers a narrow window. Sales are climbing off the bottom, which means the steepest depreciation has likely passed — trucks purchased in late 2024 or early 2025 have probably seen their sharpest value drops. But the miss against seasonal forecast means pricing has not yet turned the corner into seller-favorable territory. If you are shopping, the next 60 days remain a buyer's market. If you are selling, expect continued price pressure until monthly volumes consistently exceed 26,000 units and seasonal forecasts.

The month-over-month gain from February to March — 9.8% — is the more reliable signal for small fleets. It confirms that spring buying activity is materializing, even if it is not as robust as historical patterns would predict. Fleets that deferred purchases through the winter are beginning to move, and that incremental demand will eventually tighten inventory. The question is timing: does volume accelerate through April and May, or does it plateau at the current 24,000 to 25,000 unit range?

The gap between volume growth and forecast expectations

ACT Research's seasonal forecast incorporates historical buying patterns, economic indicators, and freight demand trends. A 10% year-over-year gain that still misses the forecast means one of two things: either the baseline comparison — March 2025 — was so depressed that even a strong recovery looks weak in absolute terms, or current freight conditions are not generating the equipment demand that spring seasonality typically drives.

Both are likely true. March 2025 sat near the bottom of a 16-month used truck volume contraction that began in late 2023. Any year-over-year comparison off that trough will show percentage gains, but the absolute unit count remains subdued. At the same time, spot rates have been flat to down for three consecutive quarters, contract rates have held steady without meaningful upward movement, and Knight-Swift posted a Q1 net loss with no new equipment purchases — all signals that large fleets are not yet confident enough in freight demand to expand capacity aggressively.

For small fleets, that macro backdrop translates into continued caution. If the largest carriers in the country are not buying trucks, the used market will not tighten quickly. The 24,900 units sold in March represent incremental improvement, not a turning point.

What April and May volume will tell us

The next two months will clarify whether March's gains represent the start of a sustained recovery or a temporary seasonal blip. If April sales exceed 26,000 units and May pushes toward 28,000, the used truck market will have turned the corner — pricing will firm, inventory will tighten, and buyers will lose negotiating leverage. If April and May hold flat in the 24,000 to 25,000 range, the market remains oversupplied and pricing stays soft through summer.

For owner-operators and small fleets, the actionable takeaway is this: if you need a truck and have been waiting for the bottom, March's data suggests you are close. But the miss against forecast means you still have time — another 30 to 60 days of buyer-favorable conditions before volume growth forces pricing up. If you are holding a truck you want to sell, expect another quarter of soft pricing unless April and May surprise to the upside.