Fuel Prices Top Carriers' Worry List for First Time Since 2014

Why did fuel prices jump to the top of carriers' concerns in 2026?

Fuel prices ranked as trucking's most pressing concern in the American Transportation Research Institute's 2026 Top Industry Issues survey, the first time diesel cost has topped the list since 2014. The shift comes as carriers exit a three-year freight recession and weigh whether the rate recovery that began in late 2025 can outpace rising operating costs. Added fuel costs are passed on to consumers through higher prices for goods and higher borrowing costs, according to the report.

The economy held the top spot for the last three years. Carriers finally earned a break from a long, brutal market recession. Freight rates recovered since the fourth quarter of 2025 because for-hire capacity declined. Overall freight demand remains chilled (housing starts have hardly moved, and the average consumer's financial strength has consistently deteriorated over the last two decades), but tighter capacity pushed rates up. Whether those for-hire rate increases will outpace 2026 operational costs remains to be seen.

CSA climbs back into the top five

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration's Compliance, Safety, Accountability program ranked among the top five industry issues for the first time since 2020. Carriers' concern for CSA remained one of the top 10 industry issues for 10 of the last 11 annual ATRI surveys, absent only from 2023's report.

Major concerns over CSA include geographic enforcement disparities and a slow DataQs appeal process, which can mischaracterize a fleet's true safety profile. Plaintiffs invoke the results of Safety Fitness Determinations to sway juries toward nuclear verdicts, as seen in a recent major C.H. Robinson case. Somewhat influenced by the rising costs of nuclear verdicts, the cost of insurance premiums in 2025 increased 3.9% year over year, according to ATRI's latest Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking.

This survey marks the third year in a row that insurance cost and availability ranked among the top five industry concerns. For small fleets, the combination of higher premiums and tighter underwriting standards means carriers with even one adverse Safety Fitness Determination or a handful of contested CSA violations can face non-renewal or rate hikes that wipe out margin gains from the rate recovery.

Driver shortage returns after one-year absence

After dropping out of the top 10 in 2025's survey, the problem of driver availability rose once again to the top five industry issues this year. The driver shortage ranked as a top 10 issue for all but one year since 2016.

Retirements, competition with other employers, improving load-to-truck ratios, and FMCSA's crackdown all contributed to the resurgence of trucking labor tightness. For fleets running 10 to 50 trucks, the return of driver scarcity means higher per-driver recruiting costs and upward pressure on wages at the same time fuel and insurance costs are rising. The question for those carriers: can the rate recovery that started in late 2025 cover all three cost increases at once, or does one of them come out of the owner's pocket?

AI and emissions regulations round out the top 10

Artificial intelligence ranked as a concern much more among drivers than among carrier executives. AI made its debut in the 2025 Top Issues survey. Respondents' concern for AI center on job elimination and AI-enabled fraud.

Emissions regulations ranked among the top 10 for a second year in a row. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's NOx rule for 2027 engines still has major revisions in the works. EPA submitted a proposed rule in July but has not yet published its final rule. Engine manufacturers each have different strategies on how they will approach next year's regulations. All the 2027 engines will likely incur some cost increases, and manufacturers' strategies could still change depending on EPA's final rule.

What the shift means for small fleets

The return of fuel prices to the top of the worry list signals that carriers see operating cost inflation as the next threat to profitability, even as rates recover. For a 10-truck fleet, the combination of higher diesel, a 3.9% insurance premium increase, tighter driver supply, and potential 2027 engine cost increases means the rate recovery that began in Q4 2025 may not translate to net income gains in 2026. Fleets that locked in contract rates before fuel spiked or that lack fuel surcharge clauses in their agreements will feel the squeeze first. The question carriers are asking now: how long does the capacity-driven rate recovery last, and does it outlast the cost spiral?