Import Volumes Sit 36% Below 2021 Peak as Domestic Rates Climb

Why aren't imports driving the current rate recovery?

Inbound ocean container volumes are sitting well below the levels that fueled the 2021 freight boom, even as domestic spot rates climb and carriers report tightening capacity. The Inbound Ocean TEUs Volume Index — a 14-day moving average measuring requests to move twenty-foot containers to the U.S. — stands at 1,715 as of late April 2026. That's 36% below the all-time peak of 2,692 hit in June 2021 and closer to multi-year lows for this time of year than highs.

The gap matters because the last time truckload rates spiked, import volumes were the engine. In 2021, container requests surged as retailers scrambled to restock after pandemic shutdowns, flooding ports and inland intermodal ramps with boxes that needed final-mile delivery. That wave of import freight pushed spot rates above $3.00 per mile in many lanes and kept contract rates elevated for months.

This time, the rate recovery is happening without that import tailwind. Domestic freight — manufacturing shipments, food and beverage, construction materials — is carrying the load. Flatbed spot rates jumped 8¢ per mile to $2.61 last week, while dry van and reefer rates have moved more modestly. Knight-Swift reported carriers are rejecting awarded bids as spot rates climb, signaling tightness in certain segments, but the volume mix looks different than 2021.

What the 1,715 index level means for capacity

The current IOTI reading of 1,715 is not a collapse — it's roughly in line with pre-pandemic seasonal norms for April. But it's a far cry from the 2021 surge that overwhelmed port capacity and sent dray rates through the roof. In 2024 and 2025, shippers front-loaded imports ahead of potential service disruptions — labor negotiations, geopolitical uncertainty, tariff speculation — which pulled volume forward and flattened the traditional spring import peak.

That front-loading left less pent-up demand for April and May 2026. Retailers and manufacturers that normally ramp container bookings in late spring to stock shelves for back-to-school and holiday seasons have already moved much of that freight. The result: steady but unspectacular import volumes that aren't adding fuel to the domestic rate fire.

For small fleets and owner-operators, the distinction matters. If you run intermodal dray or port-to-warehouse lanes, the current import picture means less pressure on your rates than you'd see in a typical spring surge. If you're running domestic freight — food distribution, flatbed construction loads, regional LTL overflow — you're seeing the tighter market that's driving the rate conversation.

How 2026 compares to the 2021 cycle

The 2021 freight boom was import-led. Container volumes spiked first, then rippled through the domestic network as boxes moved inland and retailers scrambled for truck capacity to deliver goods. Spot rates followed import volumes up, peaking in mid-2021 and staying elevated into early 2022.

The 2026 rate recovery is capacity-led. Carrier exits — bankruptcies, authority revocations, fleets parking trucks due to insurance costs — have pulled supply out of the market faster than demand has grown. Spot rates are climbing in segments where capacity has tightened most (flatbed, specialized), but the volume surge that would push rates across all equipment types isn't materializing from the import side.

That difference shows up in the numbers. In June 2021, the IOTI hit 2,692 and dry van spot rates averaged above $2.80 per mile, all-in. In April 2026, the IOTI sits at 1,715 and dry van spot rates are around $1.99 per mile. Flatbed is seeing sharper gains — up 8¢ in a week — but that's driven by domestic construction and energy-sector demand, not import containers.

What changes if import volumes pick up

The rest of 2026 depends on whether import demand rebounds. If retailers and manufacturers resume normal seasonal ordering — ramping container bookings in May and June for fall inventory builds — the IOTI could climb back toward 2,000 or higher. That would add volume to intermodal lanes and push more freight onto the domestic network as boxes move inland.

A sustained import pickup would tighten capacity further and likely push spot rates higher across equipment types, not just flatbed. Dray rates would move first, followed by regional van and reefer rates as import freight competes with domestic loads for available trucks. Contract rates would follow, as they did in late 2021, once shippers saw spot markets stay elevated for multiple months.

But if import volumes stay flat — hovering near current levels through summer — the rate recovery will remain segmented. Flatbed and specialized equipment will see the strongest pricing. Dry van and reefer will move more slowly, driven by pockets of domestic tightness rather than broad-based volume growth. Owner-operators running port lanes won't see the rate lift that domestic haulers are starting to feel.

The takeaway for a 5-truck fleet

If you're running intermodal or port-related freight, the current import picture means rates will stay closer to 2024-2025 levels than 2021 highs. The volume isn't there to push dray rates up sharply, and the front-loading that happened last year left less spring surge to chase.

If you're running domestic freight — construction materials, food and beverage, regional manufacturing — you're in the segment where capacity exits are tightening the market. Flatbed rates are already moving. Dry van and reefer will follow if capacity keeps shrinking, but the pace depends on how many more carriers exit and whether import volumes add fuel later in the year.

Watch the IOTI through May and June. If it climbs back above 1,900, that's a signal that import freight is rejoining the party and rates will likely follow. If it stays near 1,715, the rate recovery will stay domestic-driven and segmented by equipment type. Either way, the 2026 market is running on a different engine than 2021 — and that changes which lanes and equipment types see the pricing power.