Aurora targets 1,000 autonomous trucks by end of 2027, $200M revenue
CFO says company will hit positive gross margin next year and positive cash flow in 2028 as fleet grows from 200 units late this year.
Aurora Innovation expects to grow its autonomous truck fleet from 200 units late this year to 1,000 by the end of 2027, driving revenue to $200 million, a 150% jump from the $80 million run rate the company projects for the fourth quarter of 2026.
How fast is Aurora scaling its autonomous fleet?
The company plans to add 800 trucks in 2027, bringing the total fleet to 1,000 units by year-end. That's up from about 200 trucks Aurora expects to have running by late 2026. CFO David Maday told investors at Evercore ISI's 9th Annual ADAS, AV & AI Forum in late September that the expansion will be supported by customers including Hirschbach, McLane, and Schneider.
The 1,000-truck milestone is a waypoint toward Aurora's 2030 target of 30,000 trucks generating $5 billion in revenue. Maday said gross margins will turn positive in 2027 and the company expects to hit positive cash flow on a run-rate basis in 2028.
What does Aurora's revenue trajectory look like?
Aurora's second-quarter 2026 revenue was roughly $2 million, putting the projected $80 million fourth-quarter run rate at about 40 times that level. The $200 million 2027 target would be 100 times the Q2 figure. Maday described the company as being at a "commercial inflection point" where OEMs and customers can see tangible value rather than just the promise of autonomous trucking.
The 2030 vision calls for gross margins of at least 60% on the $5 billion revenue base. Maday said all the enablers are in place to support the ramp, though the 2030 figures are less concrete than the 2027 guidance.
What routes is Kodiak planning?
Kodiak AI, led by founder and CEO Don Burnette, plans to launch a driverless partnership with IKEA by the end of 2026. The routes will run between Dallas and Houston. Burnette has shifted the company's focus in the past year toward long-haul autonomy and away from industrial and defense applications.
Burnette discussed the strategy at the same Evercore conference where Maday presented Aurora's outlook. Kodiak has not disclosed fleet size or revenue targets comparable to Aurora's.
What does this mean for fleets evaluating autonomous trucks?
Aurora's 2027 fleet target of 1,000 trucks is still a fraction of the roughly 2 million Class 8 tractors registered in the U.S., but the company's claim of positive gross margin next year would mark the first time an autonomous trucking operator has said it can cover the direct cost of running a truck without a driver. The 2028 positive cash flow target would mean the business can sustain itself without outside capital, at least on a run-rate basis.
Fleets considering autonomous partnerships should note that Aurora's current customer base is limited to large carriers with dedicated lanes. The Dallas-Houston route Kodiak is planning with IKEA fits the same profile: high-volume, repeatable freight on a well-mapped corridor. Smaller fleets and owner-operators are not part of the near-term deployment picture.
The FMCSA beacon waiver for driverless trucks expires Oct. 9, which could affect how Aurora and Kodiak mark their trucks on public roads. The regulatory landscape remains in flux as autonomous operators scale up.
