Brent Crude Back Over $100 as Hormuz Closure Drags Into Second Week

Why did oil prices climb back over $100 per barrel?

Brent crude rose 1.8% to $101.80 per barrel May 8 after drifting between small gains and losses earlier in the morning. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, keeping crude above the $100 threshold for the second consecutive week and locking diesel prices near multi-year highs.

The $101.80 Brent close reverses the brief relief small fleets saw earlier this week, when crude fell 5.7% on Hormuz deal hopes and pulled diesel off its peak. That $0.27/gal diesel drop saved a 5-truck fleet running 120,000 miles per month roughly $540 in weekly fuel costs — savings that evaporate if diesel tracks crude back up.

What the $101.80 crude price means for diesel

Diesel typically lags crude moves by 48 to 72 hours. A $101.80 Brent close suggests retail diesel will hold near or above the $4.48/gal national average reported earlier this week, when diesel surged past $4.48 as the Hormuz closure hit fuel costs. At $4.48/gal, a single truck running 10,000 miles per month at 6 mpg burns $7,467 in fuel — $1,100 more than the same truck paid in May 2025 when diesel averaged $3.16.

The intraday volatility — Brent drifting between gains and losses before settling 1.8% higher — reflects ongoing uncertainty over when the strait reopens. Small fleets cannot hedge that uncertainty the way large carriers can through fuel futures or fixed-price contracts with fuel vendors. Every $10 move in Brent translates to roughly $0.24/gal at the pump within three days, and a 5-truck fleet running 600,000 annual miles absorbs a $2,400 annual fuel cost swing for every dime diesel moves.

How long elevated crude holds

The $101.80 close marks the eighth trading day Brent has held above $95/bbl since the Hormuz closure began. The longer crude stays elevated, the harder it becomes for small fleets to absorb fuel cost increases through rate negotiations. Contract rates are up 8% since fall, but that 8% gain assumes diesel near $3.50/gal — not $4.48. A fleet locked into a contract rate negotiated in March is now running fuel costs $0.98/gal higher than the rate assumed, erasing roughly $1,633 per truck per month in margin on a 10,000-mile truck.

Spot rates have not kept pace with the fuel spike. The national van spot rate averaged $1.92/mile in early May, up 4 cents from April but still 18 cents below the $2.10/mile needed to cover a $4.48 diesel environment at typical operating ratios. Owner-operators running spot-only are choosing between taking loads that lose money on fuel or sitting idle waiting for rates to catch up — and crude volatility makes it impossible to predict when that happens.

What a 5-truck fleet pays if crude holds here

A 5-truck fleet running 120,000 miles per month at 6 mpg national average burns 20,000 gallons. At $4.48/gal diesel, monthly fuel cost is $89,600. If Brent holds near $101.80 and diesel stays at $4.48 through June, that fleet will have paid $268,800 in fuel over three months — $39,600 more than the same period last year when diesel averaged $3.16.

Fleets with older equipment absorb the fuel spike harder. A 2022 Class 8 truck averaging 6 mpg pays $7,467/month in fuel at $4.48 diesel. Upgrading to a 2028 model saves $12,845 in year one on fuel — a savings driven entirely by the 8% to 11% fuel efficiency gain newer engines deliver. At $4.48 diesel, that efficiency delta is worth $1,070/month per truck, making the case for equipment upgrades stronger the longer crude stays elevated.

The bill if diesel tracks crude higher

If Brent climbs from $101.80 to $110/bbl — an 8% move — diesel will likely rise another $0.20/gal to $4.68 within a week. That adds $333/month in fuel cost per truck, or $20,000 annually for a 5-truck fleet. Small fleets running thin margins cannot absorb a $20,000 annual cost increase without either raising rates or cutting elsewhere — and rate increases require either a spot market that moves faster than it has or contract renegotiations that most shippers resist mid-term.

The volatility itself costs money. A fleet that locked in a fuel hedge or a fixed-price fuel contract when Brent was at $95 is now underwater if crude holds above $100. A fleet that waited to hedge, hoping for a Hormuz deal, is now paying spot diesel at $4.48 with no ceiling. Neither position is comfortable, and the intraday drift between gains and losses May 8 suggests the market has no clarity on which direction crude moves next.

What changes for small fleets

Small fleets should plan fuel budgets assuming diesel holds near $4.48/gal through June unless the Hormuz closure ends. Every load tendered at a rate negotiated when diesel was $3.50 or lower now loses money on fuel unless the shipper agrees to a fuel surcharge adjustment — and most contract lanes do not include automatic surcharge escalators tied to weekly diesel moves. Spot loads paying under $2.10/mile all-in are break-even or worse for a truck running $4.48 diesel, and owner-operators should calculate per-mile fuel cost before accepting any load.

Fleets with access to credit should consider locking in fuel at current prices if a vendor offers a fixed-price contract — $4.48 diesel is painful, but $5.00 diesel is worse, and Brent at $101.80 with Hormuz still closed leaves room for crude to climb. Fleets without that option should track the EIA diesel report every Monday and adjust load acceptance thresholds weekly as fuel moves.