Brent Crude Hits $93, Up 33% Since War Started in February
Oil climbed to $93.15 a barrel June 11 after Trump threatened to seize Iran's oil. Brent was at $70 before the war.
How much has oil risen since the war started?
Brent crude oil rose 0.1% to $93.15 a barrel early June 11, up 33% from the roughly $70 a barrel it traded at before the war in late February. The latest uptick came after Trump threatened to seize Iran's oil.
The climb from $70 to $93 translates directly to fuel cost for every truck on the road. A 5-truck fleet running 500 miles per day per truck at 6 mpg burns roughly 417 gallons a day. At $70 crude, diesel averaged around $3.00 a gallon. At $93 crude, diesel has climbed past $4.48 in recent weeks, a 50% jump since the war started. That same 417-gallon daily burn now costs an extra $617 per day, or $4,319 per week, compared to pre-war fuel spend.
Why oil is still climbing
Brent has added $23 a barrel in less than four months. The war disrupted supply from a region that produces roughly 30% of global crude. Trump's June 11 threat to seize Iranian oil added fresh geopolitical risk premium to the price. Markets price in the possibility of further supply disruption every time a new threat surfaces.
The U.S. has tried to offset some of the pressure. Record crude and fuel exports in April helped shrink the trade deficit, and the White House extended a Jones Act waiver to ease domestic fuel movement. But those measures address distribution bottlenecks, not the underlying supply gap the war created.
What this means for settlement statements
Fuel surcharges lag spot diesel by one to two weeks. A carrier running on contract freight with a surcharge pegged to the DOE average is still absorbing the gap between the index and the pump price they pay today. Owner-operators on spot loads face the full hit immediately. Every 10-cent rise in diesel costs a solo truck running 2,500 miles a week an extra $42 in fuel, assuming 6 mpg.
The $93 Brent price is a global benchmark. U.S. diesel prices don't move in lockstep with Brent, but the correlation is tight. When Brent adds $20, diesel typically adds $0.60 to $0.80 within a month. The war took Brent from $70 to $93. Diesel followed from roughly $3.00 to $4.48. The math holds.
How long the spike lasts
Oil prices stay elevated as long as the war continues and supply remains constrained. Brent traded in a narrow band around $70 for most of 2025. The February war start broke that range. Four months later, the market has not found a new equilibrium. Every headline about Iranian oil or Middle East supply risk moves the price.
Small fleets cannot hedge fuel the way large carriers do. They pay the spot price at the pump. The only operational lever is route efficiency and load selection. A load paying $2.00 a mile that penciled out at $3.00 diesel loses money at $4.50 diesel if deadhead or detention eats into the margin. Dispatchers are re-running the math on every load as fuel costs climb.
