CEO Confidence Drops 20% as Supply Chain and Energy Risks Return
Conference Board index falls to 47 in May, lowest since early 2024, as executives cite supply-chain fragility and energy-cost volatility.
The Conference Board's Measure of CEO Confidence fell to 47 in May from 59 the prior month, driven by renewed concerns over supply-chain stability and energy costs. The 12-point drop marks the sharpest monthly decline since early 2024 and puts the index below the neutral 50 threshold for the first time this year.
What is driving CEO pessimism in May 2026?
Executives cited two primary factors: supply-chain fragility and energy-price volatility. The Conference Board survey, which polls chief executives across industries, showed heightened anxiety about parts availability and input costs. For fleets and equipment buyers, that translates to longer lead times on truck orders, unpredictable pricing on replacement parts, and potential fuel-cost swings that erode margin on fixed-rate contracts.
The index reading of 47 indicates more CEOs expect business conditions to worsen over the next six months than improve. A reading above 50 signals optimism; below 50, pessimism. The last time the measure sat this low, OEMs were still working through semiconductor shortages and fleets were parking tractors for lack of parts.
How supply-chain risk affects truck equipment buyers
Supply-chain concerns hit truck buyers in three ways. First, lead times stretch. When OEMs cannot secure wiring harnesses, sensors, or emissions components on schedule, build slots slip. A fleet that ordered Class 8 tractors in Q1 for Q3 delivery may not see units until Q4 or later. Second, parts pricing becomes unpredictable. Distributors raise prices mid-order when their own suppliers hike costs or impose allocation. Third, warranty and recall work slows when replacement parts sit on backorder.
Energy-cost volatility compounds the problem. Diesel prices spiked 8 cents per gallon in the week ending May 23, according to recent market coverage. When fuel costs jump, fleets on fixed contracts absorb the difference. When energy costs rise for manufacturers, those increases eventually flow through to truck and parts pricing.
What this means for equipment orders and maintenance budgets
Fleets placing orders now face two risks. If CEO pessimism translates to slower freight demand, the trucks ordered today may arrive into a softer market. If supply-chain disruptions worsen, the trucks may arrive late or cost more than quoted. Maintenance budgets face similar uncertainty. Parts that were readily available six months ago may now require longer lead times or carry higher prices.
The Conference Board index does not predict equipment demand directly, but it tracks executive sentiment that shapes capital spending. When CEOs turn pessimistic, companies delay truck purchases, defer expansions, and tighten maintenance budgets. For owner-operators and small fleets, that means fewer loads, more rate pressure, and tougher decisions about whether to repair aging equipment or replace it.
The May reading suggests the optimism that drove equipment orders in early 2026 has reversed. Whether that reversal proves temporary or marks the start of a longer downturn depends on how supply-chain and energy risks evolve over the next quarter.
