Daimler Truck Finance sees freight recovery after four-year downturn

Is the freight recession finally over after four years?

Daimler Truck Financial leaders Tobias Waldeck and Kevin Bangston say yes. After four consecutive years of shrinking capacity, the trucking industry is showing signs of recovery. The company's finance arm is tracking fleet investment trends, EPA regulation impacts, and how the AI data center boom is reshaping freight demand.

The longest freight recession on record appears to be ending. Waldeck and Bangston shared insights on market recovery during a July 15 interview with FreightWaves. Their view from the equipment financing side gives a read on which carriers are buying trucks again and why.

What's driving fleet investment in 2026?

Two forces are pushing carriers back into the equipment market: new EPA regulations and the AI infrastructure buildout. The EPA's latest emissions standards are forcing fleets to decide whether to buy compliant 2027 models or prebuy 2026 inventory before the rules take effect. That decision is creating a spike in equipment financing applications.

The AI data center boom is creating new freight lanes. Hyperscale data centers require constant deliveries of servers, cooling equipment, and construction materials. Waldeck and Bangston noted that carriers serving these projects are seeing consistent volumes, a sharp contrast to the spot market volatility that defined 2023 through early 2026.

How EPA rules are reshaping truck buying

The 2027 EPA emissions standards are the most aggressive yet. Fleets face a choice: buy 2026 models before the cutoff or wait for 2027 engines that meet the new NOx limits. Daimler Truck Financial is seeing both strategies play out. Some carriers are prebuying to avoid first-year engine issues. Others are waiting, betting that EPA's proposed changes to diesel derate rules will make 2027 models more reliable than previous first-year engines.

The prebuy window is tightening. Build slots for 2026 models are filling fast, and carriers who wait too long may be forced into 2027 purchases whether they want them or not. Waldeck and Bangston said financing applications spiked in June as fleets rushed to lock in 2026 inventory.

AI data centers are creating freight demand

The AI infrastructure boom is real. Tech companies are building massive data centers to train and run large language models. Each facility requires thousands of truckloads during construction and steady deliveries once operational. Carriers with contracts to serve these projects are seeing volume levels not seen since the pandemic freight surge.

Waldeck and Bangston said the AI data center freight is different from traditional construction work. The timelines are compressed, the equipment is specialized, and the shippers pay premium rates for reliability. Carriers who can meet the delivery windows are locking in long-term contracts, giving them the cash flow confidence to finance new equipment.

What capacity stabilization means for carriers

After four years of shrinking capacity, the market is finally balancing. Thousands of carriers shut down between 2022 and 2025, taking trucks off the road. The survivors are leaner operations with better cost control. Waldeck and Bangston said the carriers applying for financing today have stronger balance sheets than the applicants they saw in 2023 and 2024.

Capacity stabilization doesn't mean rates are surging. Spot rates remain below 2021 levels, and contract rates are only now starting to tick up. But the bleeding has stopped. Carriers are no longer running loads at a loss just to keep drivers busy. The ones still operating have found lanes that pencil out.

Financing trends show fleet confidence returning

Daimler Truck Financial is seeing application volume rise for the first time since early 2022. Waldeck and Bangston said the mix of applicants has shifted. Mega fleets are buying in bulk to replace aging equipment. Mid-size carriers are adding trucks selectively, targeting specific lanes where they see sustained demand. Owner-operators are still cautious, but the ones with dedicated contracts are upgrading.

The AI data center freight is giving some carriers the confidence to expand. Waldeck and Bangston noted that carriers with multi-year contracts to serve data center projects are financing multiple trucks at once, a pattern that disappeared during the downturn. Those contracts provide the revenue visibility lenders want to see.

What small fleets should watch

Small carriers should track two indicators: EPA prebuy timing and AI infrastructure spending. If you're planning to buy a truck in the next 12 months, decide now whether you want a 2026 or 2027 model. Build slots are filling, and waiting could force you into a model year you didn't choose.

The AI data center boom is creating opportunities, but the contracts are going to carriers with specialized equipment and proven reliability. If you're running general freight, don't expect the AI infrastructure spending to lift your rates directly. The impact will be indirect, as capacity shifts toward those premium lanes and tightens availability elsewhere.

Waldeck and Bangston's read from the financing side confirms what carriers are seeing on the ground: the worst is over, but the recovery is uneven. Fleets with the right lanes and the right equipment are growing. Everyone else is still grinding.