Mexico Cargo Theft Down 37% in 2026, But Violence Hits 76% of Incidents

How dangerous is Mexico cargo theft for cross-border carriers right now?

Mexico's National Guard projects cargo thefts targeting trucking companies will fall 37% in 2026 compared to the 6,263 incidents reported in 2025. Authorities have recorded 2,519 cargo thefts so far this year. But supply chain risk management firm Overhaul reports that 76% of those incidents involved violence, underscoring the continuing threat facing drivers and fleets operating throughout Mexico.

The federal government's Balam highway security strategy, operating in 12 states, helped reduce cargo theft incidents by 37.19% between 2024 and 2025 while increasing recoveries of stolen cargo vehicles, according to Guillermo Briseño Lobera, commander of Mexico's National Guard. Authorities reported significant reductions along several major freight corridors, including the Mexico-Querétaro route, where cargo theft fell 85.7%, the Mexico-Puebla corridor, where thefts dropped 90%, and the Mazatlán-Culiacán highway, where officials reported no cargo theft incidents.

Cargo theft has fallen 52.07% between 2018 and 2025, continuing a multi-year downward trend. But the persistence of violent thefts and organized criminal networks means shippers, carriers, and cross-border logistics providers still face significant security risks across key freight corridors.

Where are cargo thefts concentrated in Mexico?

Cargo theft activity remains heavily concentrated in central and western Mexico. Overhaul's second-quarter analysis found that 77% of cargo theft incidents occurred in the Center and West regions of the country, accounting for 46% and 31% of reported thefts, respectively.

The State of Mexico, Puebla, and Guanajuato remained the three most affected states during the second quarter, accounting for nearly half of all cargo theft activity nationwide. The State of Mexico represented 18% of incidents, Puebla 17.9%, and Guanajuato 10.8%. Overall, 86.3% of Mexico's cargo theft incidents were concentrated in just 10 states.

While theft activity declined in Puebla and the State of Mexico compared to a year ago, Overhaul reported increases in Guanajuato, Veracruz, San Luis Potosí, Jalisco, Michoacán, and Tlaxcala. For cross-border carriers running lanes through central Mexico, the risk remains highest in those three states, even as national totals trend down.

What cargo are criminals targeting most?

Food and beverage shipments remained the most frequently targeted cargo category during the second quarter, accounting for 30% of thefts. Miscellaneous freight accounted for 11%, auto parts 9%, construction and industrial products 9%, and fuel 7%.

Agricultural cargo theft showed one of the largest increases year over year. Agro-related thefts increased by four percentage points, with fertilizers and pesticides among the most targeted products. Auto parts theft rose three percentage points, while fuel theft increased two percentage points.

For carriers hauling food, ag inputs, or auto parts through central Mexico, the data suggests those loads carry higher theft risk than general freight. The shift toward ag products and fertilizers reflects evolving criminal tactics as organized groups target higher-value or easier-to-fence commodities.

When do most cargo thefts happen?

Cargo theft patterns remained highly predictable during the second quarter. Overhaul reported that 85% of cargo theft incidents occurred Monday through Friday, with criminal activity peaking between Tuesday and Friday.

The highest-risk period was between 6 p.m. and midnight, accounting for 31% of incidents. Two major theft windows emerged: between 3 a.m. and 7 a.m. and between 6 p.m. and 10 p.m.

For dispatchers routing cross-border loads through Mexico, the data suggests avoiding overnight stops in high-risk states during those windows. The concentration of thefts during business days and evening hours points to organized groups tracking freight movements and targeting predictable stop patterns.

How sophisticated are the criminal groups?

Recent enforcement actions highlight the continued sophistication of cargo theft organizations. Mexico's Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection announced August 15 that federal authorities arrested three suspects linked to a criminal cell accused of cargo theft, express kidnappings of truck drivers, and the corruption of local officials along freight routes in Veracruz and Puebla.

Authorities said the group operated along the Federal Highway 150-D corridor connecting Puebla and Veracruz, one of Mexico's most important trucking routes. The involvement of corrupted local officials and the use of express kidnappings alongside cargo theft suggests these are not opportunistic crimes but organized operations with infrastructure and inside information.

For small fleets running cross-border, the combination of violence in 76% of incidents and organized groups with official connections means cargo theft is not just a property loss risk. It is a driver safety issue that requires route planning, real-time tracking, and coordination with shippers on secure stop locations.

What the theft numbers mean for cross-border carriers

The 37% decline in cargo thefts is real, and the Balam highway security strategy appears to be working on major corridors like Mexico-Querétaro and Mexico-Puebla. But the concentration of thefts in central Mexico, the rise in violent incidents, and the increases in Guanajuato, Veracruz, and other states mean the risk has not disappeared. It has shifted.

Carriers running lanes through the State of Mexico, Puebla, or Guanajuato should plan for the 6 p.m. to midnight and 3 a.m. to 7 a.m. windows as high-risk periods. Loads carrying food, ag products, auto parts, or fuel face higher theft rates than general freight. And the involvement of organized groups with access to local officials means traditional security measures like avoiding certain highways may not be enough without real-time tracking and coordination with Mexican authorities or third-party security providers.

For a small fleet running one or two cross-border loads a week, the cost of a stolen load and a driver kidnapping can end the business. The national numbers are moving in the right direction, but the operational reality in central Mexico remains a planning problem, not a solved one.