Saia Tonnage Up 8.7% in August, But Two-Year Stack Slows Again

Why did Saia's tonnage growth accelerate in August?

Saia's tonnage climbed 8.7% year-over-year in August, up from July's pace, but the carrier faced an easier prior-year comparison. Daily shipments rose 1.1% and weight per shipment jumped 7.5%. The Johns Creek, Georgia-based LTL carrier released the figures Thursday.

On a two-year stacked basis, Saia's tonnage gains slowed to 6.5% in August from 8.7% in July. That marks the second consecutive month of deceleration on the two-year measure, a signal that volume momentum is softening beneath the headline year-over-year number.

Saia implemented a 7.1% general rate increase on July 6, three months earlier than last year's GRI and 120 basis points higher. The company noted the timing can create near-term volatility in shipment counts as some customers adjust routing or defer freight. Contractual rate renewals averaged 10.7% in the second quarter, with a two-year stacked comp of 15.8%.

Revenue per shipment increased 4% from the beginning to the end of the second quarter, the company said in its last earnings call. Saia does not release revenue-based metrics in its mid-quarter updates.

What the margin guide says about Q3

Saia reported year-over-year margin improvement in the second quarter for the first time since Q1 2024. The company's third-quarter outlook, however, calls for slight deterioration.

Management expects 100 basis points of operating-ratio erosion from Q2 to Q3, less than the typical 150 to 200 basis points of seasonal degradation. The guidance implies an 87.9% operating ratio for the third quarter, 30 basis points worse year-over-year when excluding the impact of a real estate gain in Q3 2025.

The carrier delayed last year's wage increase from July to October but implemented a new pay hike in July this year. That creates a headwind of overlapping increases hitting the third quarter simultaneously.

Saia has opened, expanded, or relocated roughly 60 terminals since 2022, increasing door count by 25% and completing its transformation into a national carrier. Those newer locations are operating at a low-90% OR, a drag compared to the rest of the network, which runs in the low-80s. The margin gap between legacy and expansion terminals remains a key watch item for investors.

How the LTL sector reacted to manufacturing data

Shares of Saia were up 2.9% at midday Thursday while Old Dominion fell 2.4%. The S&P 500 rose 1%.

The LTL space took a hit earlier in the week after manufacturing data came in below expectations. The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing PMI stood at 54.6 in August, 60 basis points below consensus and 100 basis points below July's four-year high. A reading above 50 signals expansion.

The new orders subindex, an indicator of future activity, fell 3 points to 53.7. Carrier tonnage typically lags the index by three months. Shares of publicly traded LTL carriers gapped lower following the Tuesday release, closing the day down between 4% and 7%. The S&P 500 was off just 0.7%.

Old Dominion's August update, also published Thursday, showed an acceleration in year-over-year yield growth from July to August, both with and without fuel surcharges. Old Dominion's August yield rose 13% as diesel prices climbed 46% year-over-year.

What this means for small fleets watching LTL demand

Saia is one of a handful of publicly traded LTL companies. Its mid-quarter results offer a rare window into a trucking subsegment where few public datasets exist.

For truckload carriers, LTL tonnage trends matter because they reflect industrial freight demand, the same pool of goods that eventually moves on flatbeds, dry vans, and specialized equipment. When LTL shipment counts slow on a two-year basis despite easier year-over-year comps, it suggests the manufacturing recovery is real but not accelerating. The ISM new orders drop reinforces that view.

Saia faces easier prior-year comparisons for the rest of the year, excluding November. If tonnage growth doesn't reaccelerate in that environment, the two-year deceleration becomes a stronger signal that industrial freight demand has plateaued rather than entered a new expansion phase.