Truck Insurance Premiums Jump 8.3% Annually Since 2017 Despite Safer Roads

Why are truck insurance premiums still climbing when crash rates are down?

Truck insurance premiums rose an average of 8.3% per year between 2017 and 2025: more than double the 3.9% U.S. inflation rate during the same period: even as the rate of injury and fatal crashes involving heavy-duty trucks fell 8.4%, according to a report released this week by the American Transportation Research Institute. For a small fleet running five trucks, that compounding annual increase translates to premiums that have roughly doubled in eight years, regardless of the carrier's safety record.

The fourth quarter of 2025 marked the "softest" insurance market since 2017 across most lines of business, according to a quarterly survey by the Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers cited in the ATRI report. Commercial auto, the industry term for truck insurance, was the lone exception. Premiums in that segment jumped 6.6% sequentially in Q4 2025, the highest quarterly increase of any line tracked by the council.

The disconnect between crash rates and premiums

ATRI's data covers 2017 through 2025, a span during which the per-100-million-miles rate of crashes resulting in injury or death declined by 8.4%. That improvement has not translated into lower premiums or even slower premium growth. The 8.3% average annual increase held steady across the period, suggesting insurers are pricing in factors beyond crash frequency, likely including jury verdict inflation, rising medical costs, and the lingering threat of nuclear verdicts in liability cases.

The report was released days after the Supreme Court's decision in Montgomery vs. Caribe Transport II, which expanded broker liability in carrier-crash cases. ATRI noted that any insurance fallout from Montgomery would primarily hit the 3PL industry rather than carriers directly, though the ruling adds another layer of uncertainty to an already hardening market.

What this means for small fleets and owner-operators

A carrier running ten trucks that paid $120,000 in total annual premiums in 2017 would face roughly $240,000 in premiums today if the 8.3% annual increase held across the fleet. That's an additional $120,000 in fixed costs before the first load moves, and it compounds every year regardless of whether the carrier files a claim or maintains a clean CSA score.

The Q4 2025 spike: 6.6% in a single quarter: suggests the rate of increase may be accelerating rather than moderating. If that quarterly pace holds, small fleets could see premiums rise 25% or more in 2026 alone. For owner-operators already operating on thin margins, a jump of that magnitude can erase the profit from an entire month of work.

Carriers with strong safety records have historically been able to negotiate better rates, but the ATRI data suggests that advantage is narrowing. When the entire commercial auto segment is rising at more than twice the inflation rate, even the safest fleets are paying significantly more year over year. The 8.4% decline in crash rates has not been enough to offset whatever actuarial pressures are driving premiums higher.

The broader insurance market context

The Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers survey found that most lines of business, property, general liability, workers' compensation, experienced their softest pricing environment in eight years during Q4 2025. That softening typically signals increased competition among insurers and downward pressure on premiums. Commercial auto moved in the opposite direction, posting the steepest quarterly increase of any tracked segment.

That divergence suggests insurers view truck liability as uniquely risky compared to other commercial lines. The Montgomery decision, which allows plaintiffs to pursue brokers for negligent carrier selection, may reinforce that view even though the ruling targets 3PLs rather than carriers. Insurers pricing policies for 2026 and beyond are likely factoring in the possibility that expanded liability will drive more claims and higher settlements across the supply chain.

What small fleets can do

ATRI's report does not offer prescriptive advice for carriers facing rising premiums, but the data points to a few operational realities. First, safety performance still matters, a carrier with a clean record will pay less than one with claims, even if both are paying more than they did last year. Second, the gap between the safest and least-safe carriers may be widening as insurers price in the risk of nuclear verdicts. A single at-fault crash resulting in serious injury can now trigger premium increases that make it impossible for a small fleet to stay in business.

Carriers shopping for coverage should expect the 6.6% Q4 increase to carry forward into 2026 renewals. Fleets that locked in multi-year policies before 2025 may have temporary relief, but those policies will eventually reset to current market rates. The compounding effect of 8.3% annual increases means that even a one-year delay in facing the full market rate can save a five-truck fleet $10,000 or more, depending on the starting premium base.

The ATRI report underscores that insurance is now one of the fastest-growing fixed costs in trucking, outpacing fuel, equipment, and labor on a percentage basis. For small fleets, that makes insurance a line item that demands the same attention as per-mile fuel economy or driver retention. The days of treating insurance as a static annual expense are over.

The bill for a 10-truck fleet

A carrier running ten power units that paid $12,000 per truck in 2017, $120,000 total, would face roughly $240,000 in premiums today if the 8.3% annual increase held across the fleet. If the Q4 2025 quarterly spike of 6.6% extends into 2026, that same fleet could see premiums approach $300,000 by year-end. That's $180,000 more than 2017, or $18,000 per truck, before accounting for any claims or safety incidents. For a small fleet operating on 5% net margins, that increase alone can consume the profit from $3.6 million in revenue.