LTL Tonnage Up 5% in July as Manufacturing Hits Four-Year High

Why are LTL carriers seeing stronger volumes in July?

Four publicly traded LTL carriers posted July tonnage up 5.1% year over year, outperforming typical seasonal patterns by 250 to 400 basis points. The July manufacturing PMI hit 55.6, the highest reading in four years and 2.3 points above June. That level is consistent with 2.8% real GDP growth and signals sustained expansion in the industrial economy that drives two-thirds of LTL freight.

ArcBest normally sees tonnage drop 4.6% from June to July. This year it fell just 1%, a 360-basis-point outperformance. XPO beat seasonal trends by 400 basis points. Old Dominion outperformed by 250 basis points. Saia's sequential trend ran slightly below seasonal norms, but the carrier implemented a 7.1% general rate increase on July 6, creating short-term volume volatility as shippers adjusted.

The four carriers averaged 2.6% tonnage growth year over year in the second quarter. Tonnage first turned positive in March after months of contraction. Weight per shipment rose 3% on average in Q2, reflecting more truckload-sized shipments moving to LTL networks and a heavier industrial freight mix.

What the manufacturing data means for LTL demand

The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing PMI has now expanded for seven straight months. A reading above 50 signals growth; above 47.5 signals the overall economy is expanding. July's 55.6 reading came in 1.6 points ahead of analyst expectations.

The new orders subindex, which forecasts future activity, rose to 56.7 in July, up 70 basis points from June. That marked the seventh consecutive monthly increase. Demand sentiment improved to a ratio of 3.5 positive comments for every negative comment, up from 2.7-to-1 in June.

Manufacturing inflections typically lead LTL tonnage by a few months. The sustained expansion in new orders suggests LTL volume growth will continue into the fall.

XPO reported twice as many customers now expect their businesses to accelerate in the second half of the year compared to earlier in 2026. Management teams across the four carriers were more upbeat about July trends than they had been in prior months.

Capacity tightness showing up in delivery times

The ISM's supplier deliveries subindex hit 58.9 in July, up 1.5 points from June. A reading above 50 signals slower deliveries. The index has now signaled supply chain constraints for eight straight months.

Of the 13 manufacturing industries tracked, none reported faster supplier deliveries in July compared to June. That tightness reflects constrained capacity across the transportation network, not just in LTL.

Customers' inventories remained too low at 40.7, down 1.6 points sequentially. A reading below 50 means inventories are leaner than manufacturers want. Low inventories combined with rising new orders typically force more frequent, smaller shipments, which benefits LTL carriers.

Manufacturing employment turns positive for first time in 33 months

The employment subindex rose to 52.8 in July, up 3.1 points from June. That marked the first time in 33 months the index signaled manufacturing job growth. Sixty percent of survey respondents said their companies are hiring, while the rest are managing head counts.

Production jumped 6.3 points to 58.5. The backlog subindex rose 4.5 points to 55, indicating manufacturers are working through more orders than they can immediately fulfill.

Higher production and a growing backlog mean more outbound freight. For LTL carriers, that translates to sustained demand through the third quarter and likely into the fourth quarter, assuming the manufacturing expansion holds.

What this means for small fleets and owner-operators

LTL carriers handle the majority of industrial shipments under 10,000 pounds. When LTL networks tighten, some freight spills into the truckload spot market, particularly loads in the 10,000- to 20,000-pound range that can move on a 53-foot dry van.

The 3% increase in weight per LTL shipment suggests that spillover is already happening. Truckload carriers with authority to handle partial loads or who work lanes with consistent LTL overflow may see more opportunities as LTL capacity tightens.

The supplier deliveries index, now at 58.9, signals slower transit times across the supply chain. Shippers facing delivery delays may pay premiums for guaranteed capacity. Small fleets with reliable service records and flexibility to handle short-notice pickups are positioned to capture that premium.

Manufacturing employment growth also matters. More factory workers means more consumer spending in the communities where those plants operate, which can lift local delivery demand and last-mile freight volumes.

How long the LTL expansion lasts

Seven consecutive months of PMI expansion is a meaningful run, but sustainability depends on new orders holding above 50. July's 56.7 reading gives LTL carriers confidence through at least the third quarter.

If new orders stay elevated into September, LTL tonnage growth will likely accelerate into the fourth quarter, the seasonally strongest period for industrial freight. If new orders flatten or contract, LTL growth will slow within 60 to 90 days.

For now, the data supports continued LTL volume growth. Small fleets watching for truckload rate movement should track the ISM new orders subindex monthly. A drop below 50 would signal weakening industrial demand and likely softer truckload rates within a quarter.