Saia May Tonnage Up 8.4%: Weight Per Shipment Climbs 4.5%

Why did Saia's tonnage growth accelerate in May?

Saia reported May tonnage up 8.4% year-over-year as shipments grew 3.7% and weight per shipment increased 4.5%. The Johns Creek, Georgia-based LTL carrier's tonnage growth accelerated from April's 6.9% gain, though the May comparison benefited from a softer prior-year baseline. April 2025 tonnage had been 480 basis points stronger than May 2025, making this year's May comp easier to beat.

Two-year-stacked comps show Saia's tonnage growth has slowed from a recent high of 15% in March to 8% in May. The carrier faces mostly negative to slightly positive prior-year comps for the rest of 2026, which could make future growth rates look stronger even if absolute volumes remain flat.

April's final results showed tonnage up 6.9% as shipments rose 5.6% and weight per shipment climbed 1.3%. The shift to heavier shipments in May: weight per shipment up 4.5% versus 1.3% in April: signals improving freight mix. On a two-year-stacked basis, Saia's weight per shipment averaged 8% in both April and May.

What heavier shipments mean for LTL margins

Higher shipment weights typically drive revenue per shipment and margins higher in the LTL sector. When shippers consolidate smaller orders into heavier loads, carriers collect more revenue per pickup while spreading fixed costs across more pounds. Saia's 4.5% weight-per-shipment gain in May suggests customers are shipping fuller pallets or combining orders, a pattern that usually appears when manufacturing activity picks up.

Saia has spent $2 billion expanding its terminal network over the past two years, adding capacity ahead of demand. The carrier opened two terminals in May, in Marysville, Washington, and Edinburgh, Indiana, bringing its network to 216 locations. The weight-per-shipment trend will determine whether those terminals fill at margins that justify the capital outlay.

Manufacturing data points to more LTL volume

Manufacturing data released June 1 showed industrial activity positive for a fifth consecutive month in May. The Purchasing Managers' Index registered a 54 reading for the month, 130 basis points higher than April and the highest reading in four years. A PMI above 50 signals expansion; below 50 indicates contraction.

The new orders subindex, an indicator of future activity, came in at 56.8, up 270 basis points from April. Inflections in PMI data usually lead LTL volumes by a few months, meaning Saia and other LTL carriers should see the May manufacturing uptick translate to shipment growth in late summer.

ATA's truck tonnage index held at 117.8 in April, up 3.5% year-over-year and at the highest level since fall 2022. Four straight months with the index above 117 suggests freight volumes are stabilizing after two years of post-pandemic volatility.

How Saia's May compares to other LTL carriers

Old Dominion reported April tonnage down 8% year-over-year in its Q1 earnings call, citing geopolitical uncertainty that softened volumes late in the quarter. XPO's Q1 LTL revenue rose 5% on slight tonnage growth and a 4% yield gain excluding fuel. ArcBest's ABF Freight posted Q1 tonnage up 6.5%, beating forecast as shipment weight rose 5%.

Saia's 8.4% May tonnage growth outpaces most peers on a single-month basis, though the year-ago comp matters. May 2025 was a weak month for Saia, making this year's gain easier to achieve. The two-year-stacked comp, which smooths out comp volatility, shows Saia's tonnage growth decelerating from 15% in March to 8% in May.

What this means for small fleets and owner-operators

LTL tonnage growth and heavier shipments signal tightening capacity in the less-than-truckload sector, but that tightness does not automatically translate to truckload spot rates. LTL carriers move freight in hub-and-spoke networks with scheduled linehaul runs, insulating them from the spot market volatility that hits truckload owner-operators.

The manufacturing uptick: PMI at 54, new orders at 56.8, should eventually lift truckload demand, but the lag between manufacturing activity and truckload spot rates typically runs 60 to 90 days. Small fleets running spot freight should watch June and July manufacturing data for confirmation that the May uptick holds. If PMI stays above 54 and new orders stay above 56, truckload spot rates could firm by late Q3.

For fleets running dedicated or contract lanes serving manufacturers, the May PMI reading is the first hard signal in months that shippers may need more capacity by fall. Fleets with annual bid cycles should use the new orders subindex, up 270 basis points in May, as leverage in Q4 contract negotiations.