Why Flatbed Rejections Hit 23.5% While Demand Stays Flat

Why are tender rejections staying elevated for months instead of correcting?

The national Truckload Rejection Index stands at 14.36%, well above its six-month average of 10.9%, and has held elevated for months rather than spiking and retreating. Flatbed rejections are running at 23.5% and refrigerated at 19.46%, both outpacing the national average. The sustained nature of those levels, rather than any single week's reading, is the clearest sign that capacity is not self-correcting quickly.

Knight-Swift management attributed rapid tightening to supply-driven dynamics, with spot rates exceeding normal seasonality and tender rejections reaching levels the carrier had not seen since 2021. Both Knight-Swift and Werner specifically called out FMCSA and DOT efforts to revoke invalid CDLs and shut down noncompliant driving schools as forces removing low-cost, noncompliant capacity from the market. Werner also flagged ELD providers exiting alongside the school and driver removals.

What's driving spot rates independent of fuel prices?

Stripping out fuel costs, spot rates continue to move higher independent of diesel prices, indicating that willingness to pay and lack of capacity, not fuel, are the primary drivers. The National Truckload Index showed a modest dip in mid-June before resuming its climb. Rates can rise even when diesel is falling, and the data shows spot rates and diesel prices are not moving in tandem.

Knight-Swift's CEO characterized the current cycle as supply-driven rather than demand-driven, a view consistent with volume indexes remaining relatively flat to modest rather than surging. Where volume is rising is in intermodal. J.B. Hunt reported higher intermodal volume attributed to rising fuel costs and constrained truck supply pushing freight toward rail, a mode shift rather than a broad demand increase.

How much harder is driver recruiting getting?

J.B. Hunt flagged increased sign-on bonuses and targeted wage increases as a potential margin pressure point going forward. With the eligible driver pool shrinking under regulatory enforcement and a healthier freight market giving drivers more options to chase higher pay, carriers are absorbing recruiting costs that are unlikely to recede quickly.

Knight-Swift pointed to the same CDL revocation and noncompliant school shutdowns as shrinking the eligible driver pool. J.B. Hunt said the driver market tightening is leading to increased sign-on bonuses and targeted wage increases, flagging those as a potential margin pressure point going forward.

Why are shippers moving toward dedicated capacity?

J.B. Hunt said its dedicated pipeline was at record levels, citing a tight driver market, regulatory pressures, and customer demand for reliable capacity. Werner CEO Derek Leathers noted on his company's earnings call that organic dedicated business is growing as a whole, not solely from fleet acquisitions.

The shift toward asset-based and dedicated capacity makes sense in the current regulatory environment with liability concerns. Shippers are locking in capacity rather than relying on spot market availability that is increasingly unreliable at elevated rejection rates.

What does sustained tightness mean for equipment replacement cycles?

The convergence of all five signals, each confirmed by both SONAR data and the largest carriers' own reporting, suggests the current tightness reflects structural shifts rather than a temporary seasonal pattern. Carriers that deferred tractor replacements during the downturn now face a tighter driver market and higher recruiting costs at the same time they need to add units to meet demand.

Fleets that planned to replace aging equipment in 2026 or 2027 are competing for the same shrinking driver pool. The regulatory enforcement removing noncompliant drivers is not a one-time event. FMCSA and DOT efforts to revoke invalid CDLs and shut down noncompliant driving schools are ongoing, meaning the capacity that left is not coming back.

What this means for small fleets and owner-operators

Small fleets and owner-operators operating in flatbed and refrigerated segments are seeing the tightest conditions. Rejection rates above 20% in those segments mean shippers are willing to pay more for reliable capacity. Contract rates are rising as new agreements come into play, leading to better tender acceptance as carriers lock in higher rates rather than chasing spot loads.

The supply-driven nature of the current cycle means equipment decisions matter more than usual. Fleets that can recruit and retain drivers, keep units running, and meet compliance standards have pricing power. Those that cannot are exiting. The gap between compliant capacity and shadow capacity that regulatory enforcement is removing is widening, and the data shows no sign of that gap closing quickly.