Supply Crunch Could Run Into 2028 If ELD, CDL Rules Stick
Reliance Partners CRO says five regulatory enforcement actions already reshaping capacity. Demand improved June and July, but supply still drives the cycle.
How long will the supply-driven freight cycle last?
The trucking freight cycle could run past the end of 2027 or into the first quarter of 2028 if regulatory enforcement continues, and could extend significantly longer if pending rules are enacted, according to Thom Albrecht, Chief Revenue Officer of Reliance Partners. Albrecht, who began covering freight on Wall Street in 1989, called this the most fascinating supply cycle he has seen in his career.
Five supply-side enforcement actions have already reshaped carrier capacity: English language proficiency enforcement, action on non-domiciled drivers, elimination of self-certification at CDL institutions, the move away from self-certification for electronic logging devices, and legal fallout from the Montgomery Supreme Court decision, including what Albrecht called a recent large C.H. Robinson verdict.
What's happening to demand?
Demand has improved, though it is not robust. The Purchasing Managers Index survey of 18 industries showed only 4 reporting growth in September of last year, rising to 9 in January, 14 in June, and 15 in July. Rail freight data showed the freight index reached its second-highest level since 2008. Albrecht tracks chemicals as a proxy for future industrial activity and scrap metal for its flexibility as an industrial input. Both commodity flows point toward gradual improvement in the manufacturing economy.
He predicted a bumper corn crop this year, driven by heavy rainfall across the Midwest and Southeast, which would add to already strong grain export shipments moving by rail. The broader industrial picture supports gradual volume gains across LTL and truckload, but supply constraints are still the dominant force in pricing.
The ELD certification bottleneck
A centerpiece of Albrecht's outlook is the planned elimination of ELD self-certification. There are currently roughly 1,000 registered ELDs in the United States, compared with 41 in Canada, where a rigorous certification process checks more than 500 compliance points per device. Albrecht argued the U.S. market would consolidate dramatically, potentially to 20 or fewer certified providers, weeding out devices used to falsify records.
For a small fleet running 10 trucks, that consolidation means switching providers if your current ELD doesn't make the cut. The cost is not just the hardware swap. It is the downtime, the driver retraining, and the risk that your current vendor goes dark before you migrate. Albrecht also called for stiffer fines on both drivers and motor carriers for English language proficiency violations, and suggested that freight itself could be seized by the government as an enforcement tool.
New entrant reform and the $5,000 DOT number
On new entrant reform, Albrecht advocated for a proposed rulemaking that would require prospective carriers to answer 100 or more questions covering maintenance, hours of service, and driver skills before receiving a DOT number. He also floated raising the cost of obtaining a new DOT number from roughly $300 today to between $5,000 and $10,000, saying that price signal alone would curtail the practice of operators cycling through registrations to evade enforcement.
Last year, approximately 60,000 brand-new DOT numbers were issued. If the application fee rises to $5,000, that is a $300 million annual barrier to entry. The intent is to stop the churn of undercapitalized carriers who fold after a few months and reappear under a new MC number. The side effect is that legitimate owner-operators starting out face a steeper climb.
Will shippers lobby to ease the rules?
On the question of whether large shippers could lobby Washington to ease carrier regulations and relieve tightening capacity, Albrecht was skeptical. He noted that transportation costs rarely surface as a top priority for major retail and industrial CFOs, and that the current administration has shown little appetite for walking back enforcement actions driven by safety and immigration compliance, areas he described as more bipartisan than shipper-friendly.
"Safety is paramount," he said. "That was never deregulated."
That means the regulatory tightening is likely to persist regardless of shipper complaints about rising contract rates. Carriers who can absorb the compliance costs and survive the ELD shakeout will operate in a market with fewer competitors and stronger pricing power.
What this means for a 5-truck fleet
If you run a small fleet, the timeline matters. A supply-driven cycle that runs into 2028 means another 18 to 24 months of tighter capacity and firmer rates, assuming you can stay compliant. The risks are front-loaded. If your ELD provider is not on the short list of certified vendors, you need a migration plan now, not when FMCSA publishes the final rule. If you are adding trucks, the new-entrant reforms will not hit you, but they will reduce the number of fly-by-night competitors undercutting your bids.
The demand picture is improving, but slowly. Chemicals, scrap, and grain are all moving in the right direction. Rail is strong. Manufacturing PMI is climbing. None of that changes the fact that supply, not demand, is setting the price. The cycle lasts as long as the regulatory enforcement lasts. Albrecht's read is that enforcement is not slowing down.
