Transportation Prices Hit 92.4 in June, 3.6 Points Off Record

Why are transportation prices still climbing in June 2026?

Transportation prices hit 92.4 in June, only 3.6 percentage points below the record set in May, according to the Logistics Managers' Index. Capacity fell to 30.8, down 90 basis points from May, marking the seventh consecutive month of decline. Utilization jumped 5.2 points to 74.7, accelerating from 69.2 in the first half of the month to 78.8 in the back half, an eight-year high.

The LMI is a diffusion index in which a reading above 50 indicates expansion and below 50 signals contraction. A transportation price reading of 92.4 means nearly every logistics manager surveyed reported higher rates in June.

Public truckload carriers appearing at an investor conference last month said stricter regulatory enforcement has resulted in a material drawdown in supply. The group noted that routing guides are crumbling. Contractual rates set earlier in the year aren't holding and many shippers are being forced to reprice some or all of their books.

What capacity and utilization numbers mean for small fleets

Transportation capacity has declined in seven consecutive months. For a small fleet, that means fewer trucks competing for the same loads. Utilization accelerated throughout June, increasing from 69.2 in the first half to 78.8 in the back half. When utilization climbs that fast, shippers pay more to secure trucks and carriers can be more selective about which loads they accept.

Public truckload carriers have focused on improving utilization through better load planning and freight selection in recent quarters. That strategy works when capacity is tight. A 5-truck or 20-truck fleet can apply the same logic: turn down marginal loads, wait for better-paying freight, and let utilization climb. The June data shows that approach is working across the sector.

Logistics managers surveyed expect the transportation market to remain very tight over the next 12 months, returning future readings of 42.4 for capacity, 75.8 for utilization, and 87 for pricing. A capacity reading of 42.4 means managers expect further contraction. A pricing reading of 87 means they expect rates to keep climbing, though not at the June pace.

Retailers building inventory early, tightening warehouse capacity

The overall LMI registered a 71.1 reading in June, up 1.6 points from May, and the first time the dataset has crossed 70 (significant expansion) since March 2022. Inventory levels jumped 5.7 points to 60.5, driving the bulk of the increase. Large companies (over 1,000 employees) and downstream retailers reported faster inventory growth rates. Restocking activity intensified as the month progressed, increasing from 55.4 in the first half to 66.3 in the back half.

Retailers were taking delivery of goods early this year to avoid potential tariffs. Ocean shipping companies implemented new surcharges at the beginning of July. Retailers appear to be encouraged by the continued strength in consumer spending, rushing in goods for the back-to-school season. That's a noted shift from the wait-and-see approach that retailers had been employing through most of the spring.

Higher inventory levels led to some tightening in the warehousing metrics. Warehousing capacity fell 3 points to 47.5, with warehouse utilization increasing 6.5 points to 69.4. Warehouse prices rose 3 points to 73.8, with large companies seeing significant growth (81.9) as they took delivery of inventory. For small fleets running local or regional delivery, tighter warehouse capacity means longer wait times at docks and more pressure to hit appointment windows.

What the inventory surge means for freight demand

Inventory costs accelerated to 75.9 but at a pace that was 8.1 points slower than May. Responses showed inventory costs grew 12 points faster downstream than upstream (manufacturers and wholesalers). That split matters for small fleets: downstream retailers are paying more to hold inventory, which means they're motivated to move it quickly once it arrives. That can translate to more outbound loads and tighter delivery schedules.

Aggregate logistics costs (inventory, warehousing, and transportation) were down 8.7 points to 242.1 in June. May marked the fastest rate of expansion for the all-in cost dataset since March 2022. The June decline doesn't signal relief. A reading of 242.1 still means costs are expanding at a historically fast pace, just not as fast as the record May rate.

The LMI is a collaboration among Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Florida Atlantic University, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, conducted in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals. The survey captures responses from logistics managers across manufacturing, wholesale, and retail sectors.

How long the tight market lasts

Logistics managers expect capacity to remain contracted and utilization to stay elevated through mid-2027. A future capacity reading of 42.4 and a future pricing reading of 87 mean the market conditions that drove June's 92.4 price index are expected to persist, though at a slightly slower pace. For a small fleet, that means the current environment (high utilization, selective freight, rising settlement checks) is not a short-term spike.

Routing guides crumbling and contract rates failing to hold are the operational proof. When shippers can't fill loads at contracted rates and have to reprice their books mid-year, that's a sign the market has moved faster than their procurement teams anticipated. Small fleets that locked in dedicated or contract lanes earlier in the year may see shippers come back to renegotiate. Fleets running spot have already captured the rate increase.

The June data shows spot rates climbing across all three segments, with dry van spot topping contract for the first time since 2022. The LMI transportation price reading of 92.4 confirms that the rate environment is broad-based, not limited to a few hot lanes or equipment types. Capacity is tight, utilization is high, and shippers are paying more to move freight. That combination doesn't reverse quickly.