Truckload Rates Hit 16% Above Baseline, LTL Up 76.5% in Q2 2026

Why did truckload and LTL rates jump in Q2 2026?

Truckload rates hit a 14-quarter high in the second quarter of 2026, landing 16% above the January 2018 baseline. That's up 6.6 percentage points from the first quarter and 10.1 points year-over-year, according to the TD Cowen-AFS Freight Index released Tuesday. LTL rates climbed even faster, reaching 76.5% above the 2018 baseline in Q2, up 9.6 points sequentially and 13.3 points year-over-year. Both segments are expected to push higher in the third quarter.

The driver: capacity constraints and diesel fuel price surges. More than 48,000 non-compliant drivers have been forced out of the industry over the past year. Small carriers are parking trucks rather than absorb fuel costs they can't recover through surcharge programs. "Smaller truckload carriers working on tight margins may park trucks and wait for fuel prices to revert to more palatable levels before returning to operation, further restraining capacity amid a supply-side market correction," said Andy Dyer, CEO of AFS Logistics.

What's happening to contract rates?

Mini-bid activity has spiked as routing guides crumble. Public carrier management teams told investors last month that contractual rates set early in the 2026 bid season proved too low. Carriers are now eyeing double-digit contractual rate increases this year and next to restore margins. TL linehaul cost per shipment increased 3.1% sequentially in Q2 even though miles per shipment fell 1.8%. The report noted an increase in shipments of 500 miles or less, as some longer-haul moves were lost to cheaper intermodal options.

The TD Cowen-AFS index expects the TL rate-per-mile component to climb to 17.7% above baseline in Q3, which would be 11.7 points higher year-over-year. Current tender rejection data shows a tight truckload market, with carriers turning down loads at rates consistent with prior capacity crunches.

How are LTL carriers capturing fuel costs?

LTL fuel surcharges captured by the dataset were more than 60% above the June 2025 benchmark during Q2, as retail diesel prices were 51% higher year-over-year. Less-than-truckload fuel surcharge mechanisms include a step function as diesel prices rise, typically resulting in margin accretion. "Q2 showed that carriers' pricing strategies include the ability to not only secure rate increases and strategically valuable volumes, but capture volatile fuel costs," said Mich Fabriga, vice president of LTL pricing at AFS Logistics.

The LTL rate-per-pound component of the index is expected to increase 30 basis points sequentially in Q3, which would be nearly 10 points higher year-over-year. LTL cost per shipment was up 0.7% sequentially in Q2 even though weight per shipment fell 4.8%. Elevated fuel prices were behind the increase in costs.

When are general rate increases hitting?

Large public LTL carriers are taking general rate increases earlier in the year given favorable market fundamentals. GRIs, which usually apply to one-quarter of carrier shipments, have again been pulled forward from a typical annual cadence. ArcBest implemented a 5.9% GRI on June 22, flat year-over-year but installed approximately six weeks ahead of the 2025 rate hike. Saia implemented a 7.1% GRI on July 6, 120 basis points higher and three months earlier than last year's bump.

Public carriers reported year-over-year increases in weight per shipment during April and May. XPO was the outlier, but the company's freight mix now includes more shipments from SMBs, which tend to have lower shipment weights but better margins. The heavier shipment weights are due to weak prior-year comps and as some freight lost to a depressed TL market comes back.

What's driving LTL volume growth?

Industrial activity improved for a sixth consecutive month in June, according to manufacturing data released by the Institute for Supply Management. The data typically leads LTL volumes by a few months, as roughly two-thirds of carrier revenue is tied to industrial output. Two-year-stacked tonnage comparisons, which smooth out prior-year volatility, turned positive for public LTL carriers in May following a prolonged downturn.

The report flagged FedEx Freight's narrowed commercial focus as a standalone entity and Amazon's full entry into LTL as potential headwinds for pricing. The second-quarter earnings season begins Wednesday when J.B. Hunt Transport Services reports after the market closes.

What small carriers are feeling

The 16% TL rate increase above baseline sounds strong, but most small carriers struggle to recoup rising fuel costs through surcharge programs. If you're running a 5-truck or 10-truck fleet without the buying power or surcharge mechanisms of a public carrier, the fuel price surge eats margin faster than contract rate increases can replace it. The result: trucks parked, waiting for diesel to drop. The capacity exit is real, the rate pressure is real, but the settlement statement for a small fleet still depends on whether your fuel surcharge clause actually works. For owner-operators and small fleets without negotiated fuel programs, the gap between spot and contract rates narrowing offers some relief, but only if you can stomach the fuel bill long enough to capture it.