5,000 New Trucking Authorities Added in 2025, But Can Brokers Use Them?

Are new MC numbers actually adding capacity to the truckload market?

The trucking industry posted a net gain of more than 5,000 new operating authorities through the first three quarters of 2025, even after 19,594 net revocations, according to FreightWaves SONAR CNDCA data reviewed on August 12. But the headline number overstates available capacity, because brokers and shippers are unlikely to tender freight to carriers with brand-new MC numbers and no safety rating given current fraud conditions and liability exposure.

The net gain broke down unevenly across quarters. Q1 produced a gain of just 400 authorities. Q2 added 2,910. Q3 has posted a net gain of 1,996 through the week ending August 7, running 914 behind Q2's pace but 1,596 ahead of Q1. A visible June spike in the data is partly a data artifact from a registration outage tied to the Modus system transition, during which no authority data was collected from May 16 through June 5.

The fraud and liability wall

"Are brokers still tendering freight to carriers with new MC numbers and no safety rating based on current fraud conditions as well as certainly litigation and liability concerns?" Julie Van de Kamp said. "I don't know that it's necessarily translating to more capacity being available."

The compliance gap is structural. A new carrier receives its MC number from FMCSA but does not receive a safety rating until it completes a new-entrant safety audit, typically scheduled 12 months after the carrier begins operations. During that window, the carrier has no safety fitness determination on record. Brokers who tender freight to unrated carriers face heightened liability exposure if the carrier is later involved in a crash or found to be operating unsafely. In the current environment, where chameleon carriers reopen after violations and double-brokering schemes proliferate, many brokers have tightened vetting standards to exclude carriers without a safety rating entirely.

The result is a two-tier market. New authorities exist on paper, but they cannot access the broker freight that makes up the majority of spot-market volume. The capacity those MC numbers represent is effectively sidelined until the carrier completes its new-entrant audit and receives a satisfactory rating.

Immigration policy tightens the driver pool

Van de Kamp pointed to immigration policy as a structural constraint on the driver pool. Bureau of Labor Statistics data put the share of non-U.S.-born immigrant drivers at roughly 20% as of 2019. Insurance industry estimates place that figure as high as 40% of the total driver population. Tightening immigration enforcement removes what has historically been a relief valve for driver supply, compounding an already aging driver demographic.

The driver-supply constraint operates independently of the authority count. A new MC number does not create a new driver. If the driver pool is shrinking or aging out faster than new drivers enter, the net effect is fewer trucks on the road regardless of how many new authorities FMCSA grants.

Demand is rising, rejections are flat

On the demand side, SONAR's Truckload Volume Index shows volumes running above the prior three-year average on a seasonal basis, with a minor uptick visible since August 8. Tender rejections held at 13.5% as of the August 12 update, in line with April levels but showing some cooling in recent weeks. Loaded inbound ocean container volumes tracked by the IOTI index are running higher than last year since June, though the pattern is more elongated than the sharp, tariff-driven import spike seen in 2024. Inventory levels remain a watch item: LMI data shows inventories down 9% year over year.

Flat tender rejections in the face of rising demand suggest that available capacity is absorbing the volume increase without tightening further. But the rejection rate has not fallen, either, which would signal loosening capacity. The market is balanced at a higher demand level than earlier in the year.

Mode conversion to rail is reshaping truckload volume

A mode-conversion dynamic is also reshaping apparent truckload volume. SONAR O-Rail data show domestic intermodal loaded containers up 7% over the past two years and up 5% over the past six months, while international loaded containers are down 13% over two years and down 2% over six months. Craig Fuller said the shift helps explain why tender rejections have softened without a corresponding drop in overall freight demand.

The intermodal shift pulls long-haul freight off the highway and onto rail, reducing truckload demand on lanes where intermodal is competitive. The effect is most visible on high-volume corridors where rail service is reliable and transit times are acceptable to shippers. The result is that truckload capacity appears looser than it would be if all freight remained on the highway, even though total freight demand is rising.

What the end-of-August brake check will tell us

Looking ahead, Fuller and Van de Kamp both expect demand to continue rising into peak season, with the outcome of the end-of-August "brake check" period (a seasonal inflection point for capacity) likely to signal whether the market is entering a hotter cycle. Van de Kamp said structural supply constraints, combined with potential broadening of industrial activity beyond data centers into housing and auto, could extend the current upcycle well beyond the summer of 2026 timeline some analysts have cited.

The brake check is the period when carriers decide whether to add trucks for peak season or hold capacity flat. If demand is strong enough and rates are high enough, carriers will lease additional equipment and hire drivers. If the market looks soft, they will hold steady or even shrink. The decision point typically falls in late August, when shippers begin tendering peak-season freight and carriers can see whether the volume justifies expansion.

What new carriers need to know

If you hold a new MC number granted in 2025, your authority is valid and you can legally haul freight. But you will face vetting barriers with brokers until you complete your new-entrant safety audit and receive a safety rating. FMCSA schedules the audit within 12 months of the date you began operations. You cannot accelerate the audit by request.

To improve your chances of securing broker freight before the audit, maintain a clean inspection record, carry cargo and liability insurance at or above broker minimums (typically $100,000 cargo, $1 million auto liability), and register with online carrier-packet platforms that allow brokers to verify your insurance, authority, and W-9 digitally. Brokers who use packet systems can onboard you faster than brokers who require paper submissions, but they will still check your safety rating. If you have none, expect to be excluded from many broker networks until your audit is complete.

The 5,000-authority gain is real, but the capacity it represents is not yet accessible to the spot market. The compliance gap between authority issuance and safety-rating assignment creates a lag that keeps new carriers on the sidelines during the exact period when the market needs capacity most.