Cross-Border Spot Rates Up 30% in Two Months as Produce, Fuel Squeeze

Why are cross-border rates climbing so fast?

Cross-border freight rates between Mexico and the U.S. have risen 8% to 15% across the market since February, with some major corridors seeing increases approaching 30% in just two months, according to Uber Freight's Q2 Market Update & Outlook released Thursday. The company attributes the spike to three simultaneous pressures: record produce volumes moving north, diesel prices that jumped from $3.72 per gallon in February to $5.64 in May, and declining availability of B-1 commercial drivers.

The rate surge is arriving earlier than most carriers and shippers expected. Uber Freight says conditions that typically emerge during peak season are already tightening freight networks across North America. The company forecasts truckload spot rates will remain 20% to 25% above 2025 levels for the remainder of the year, while contract rates could rise 5% to 10%.

"Peak season appears to be arriving earlier and behaving differently than normal," Uber Freight said, citing the combination of produce volumes, fuel costs, and tightening capacity.

Produce exports drive the tightest lanes

Mexico's agricultural exports are the strongest driver of cross-border demand. Produce volumes moving through Laredo are experiencing one of the heaviest seasons on record. March shipments of citrus, fruits, and nuts from Mexico were up more than 36% compared to the same period in 2025, while total exports moving through Laredo increased 8% year over year.

The surge in agricultural freight has pulled trucking capacity toward key cross-border corridors and produce-growing regions. Carriers have increasingly shifted equipment to take advantage of stronger reefer rates, creating capacity shortages for dry van shippers and contributing to broader market tightening.

Fresno-to-Chicago reefer spot rates jumped 43% in a single month, while produce transportation rates from California to Chicago increased nearly 25% in recent weeks. Uber Freight advised shippers to tender freight four to five days in advance on cross-border lanes and secure reefer capacity early before summer demand peaks.

For small fleets running reefer equipment, the produce season is delivering the strongest rates in years. For dry van operators competing for the same lanes, the capacity drain means fewer loads and higher rejection rates.

Diesel adds $1.92 per gallon since February

Transportation providers are facing rapidly rising fuel costs at the same time demand is tightening. The national average diesel price reached $5.64 per gallon in May, up from $3.72 per gallon in February. The increase was driven largely by geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East and reduced oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Fuel surcharges are becoming a growing issue in cross-border transportation because many Mexico freight lanes do not have standardized fuel surcharge programs. Uber Freight noted that shippers should review fuel surcharge agreements, shorten surcharge adjustment cycles, and add fuel accessorials where necessary.

For a small fleet running cross-border, the $1.92-per-gallon jump translates to roughly $288 more per 1,000 miles in fuel cost alone on a truck averaging 6 mpg. Without a fuel surcharge indexed to current prices, that cost comes straight out of the settlement.

B-1 driver capacity falling

Uber Freight listed declining availability of B-1 commercial drivers among the primary factors tightening Mexico-U.S. freight networks. The company did not quantify the decline, but noted the trend has become increasingly important for carriers serving cross-border freight markets.

The B-1 visa allows Mexican nationals to drive commercial vehicles in the U.S. for cross-border freight. Tightening driver availability compounds the capacity pressure already created by produce demand and fuel costs.

Separately, Uber Freight estimates the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration's non-domiciled CDL rule could remove roughly 40,000 drivers annually over the next five years, tightening available capacity even further across North America.

Spot market tightening nationwide

Beyond cross-border markets, Uber Freight reported truckload conditions are tightening nationwide despite what is normally a softer seasonal period. Van spot rates increased 24.8% year over year in April, reefer rates rose 26.3%, and flatbed spot rates climbed 23.7%. Spot market volumes were up 44% year over year.

First-tender acceptance rates slipped to 82%, while route-guide compliance fell to 86%, forcing more freight into the higher-cost spot market. For small fleets, the combination of rising spot rates and falling acceptance rates means more opportunity to pick up loads outside contracted lanes, but also more volatility in weekly settlement totals.

What cross-border carriers should watch

Uber Freight's message to shippers is that the window to secure capacity is narrowing. For carriers, the same dynamic means the window to lock in higher contract rates is open now, not later in the summer.

The company urged shippers to secure capacity earlier, closely monitor tender acceptance rates, and develop contingency plans for critical domestic and cross-border lanes. For a small fleet running Mexico-U.S. lanes, that translates to leverage in rate negotiations, particularly on reefer equipment and produce corridors.

Global schedule reliability remains near 63%, while companies continue diversifying sourcing away from China and adjusting supply chains in response to changing trade policies. Cross-border freight markets continue to face uncertainty as geopolitical conflicts, tariff policy changes, and shifting sourcing strategies alter global trade flows.

Mexico's freight trucking sector grew 1.8% in the first quarter of 2026, outpacing both the broader transportation sector and Mexico's overall economy, according to data from Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). Freight trucking accounted for 51.4% of the GDP generated by Mexico's transport, postal, and warehousing sector and represented 3.8% of national GDP during the quarter.

The bill for a 10-truck fleet

For a 10-truck fleet running cross-border lanes, the combined impact of fuel and rate movement is measurable. If each truck averages 2,500 miles per week and the fleet captures the 8% to 15% rate increase Uber Freight cited, weekly revenue per truck rises $200 to $375 before fuel. The $1.92-per-gallon diesel increase costs roughly $720 per truck per week at 6 mpg. Net gain per truck: zero to $155 per week, assuming fuel surcharges don't fully cover the diesel spike.

The math improves sharply for fleets running reefer equipment on produce lanes, where spot rates jumped 25% to 43% in recent weeks. The math worsens for dry van operators who lost capacity to the produce pull and are now competing for fewer loads at rates that haven't kept pace with fuel.