Spot Rates Hold at $3.51/Mile as Diesel Falls, Capacity, Not Fuel, Drives Pricing

Why are spot rates staying high when diesel prices are dropping?

Truckload spot rates are holding near $3.51 per mile even as diesel prices at truck stops fell to $3.48 per gallon from a July high near $3.80. The divergence confirms what carriers have been saying all year: tight capacity, not fuel cost, is sustaining elevated freight rates. The Sonar NTI climbed back from a mid-to-late June low near $4.90, while diesel moved in the opposite direction.

Tender rejections remain well above historical norms. The Sonar Truckload Rejection Index stands at 14.36%, above the six-month average of 10.9%. Flatbed is the tightest mode at 23% rejections, down sharply from the 40% range seen in June and early July but still historically elevated. Reefer rejections sit at 19.46%, nearly one in five loads. Van rejections are running nearly 50% above year-ago levels.

What carrier earnings show about capacity

Knight-Swift reported that its truckload segment operating income rose 69% year over year. The carrier said strategic pricing recovery accelerated in June as recent bids took effect. The company described rapid tightening in supply-driven dynamics and tender rejections reaching levels not seen since 2021.

Werner CEO Derek Leathers said the company's organic dedicated business is growing. Revenue in both Werner's and J.B. Hunt's dedicated and truckload segments improved. The gains are coming from mode shift and share shift rather than a broad demand recovery. J.B. Hunt reported significant intermodal growth, and strong intermodal results appeared across carrier earnings broadly.

Carriers are not adding trucks. They are operating better with what they have and at better rates. Revenue per truck per week is improving, but fleet counts remain flat or declining at the largest carriers.

Why capacity keeps exiting the market

Regulatory pressures are removing shadow capacity as ELD providers exit the market alongside ongoing driver and CDL school removals. Werner cited these factors directly in its earnings call, noting they are impacting both capacity and the quality of driver availability.

Driver recruiting headwinds are intensifying the capacity squeeze. A tight market gives drivers more options, and regulatory enforcement is raising barriers to entry and complicating retention efforts. With capacity continuing to exit the market and no significant fleet additions visible in large-carrier earnings, the market is expected to remain tight through fall and into next year.

How nuclear verdicts are reshaping shipper behavior

Rising nuclear verdict exposure is changing where shippers place freight. Shippers are increasingly moving loads to well-established asset-based carriers to limit liability, fraud, and cargo risk. This dynamic is expected to benefit carriers with large dedicated fleets through the remainder of 2024 and into 2025.

Dedicated revenue improved at both Werner and J.B. Hunt. Werner's acquisition of First Fleet drove part of the margin improvement and added truck count, but organic dedicated business is also growing. Shippers are locking in multi-year dedicated contracts to secure capacity and reduce legal exposure.

What this means for small fleets

Spot rates are holding because capacity is scarce, not because diesel is expensive. That means rates are likely to stay elevated even if fuel costs continue to ease. For owner-operators and small fleets, the current environment rewards those who can stay in service and reject low-ball offers.

Tender rejections above 14% signal that shippers are still scrambling for trucks. Flatbed and reefer remain the tightest modes, with rejection rates that give carriers pricing power. Van is cooling slightly but still running 50% above last year's rejection levels.

The capacity crunch is structural. Regulatory barriers, driver shortages, and nuclear verdict risk are keeping new capacity from entering the market. Large carriers are not adding trucks, and small fleets that exited during the downturn are not coming back. That sets up a tight market through fall and into 2025, assuming demand remains stable.

For fleets running 1 to 50 trucks, the takeaway is straightforward: capacity constraints are driving rates, fuel is not. If diesel drops further, expect to keep more of the rate. If it climbs, expect shippers to push back harder, but the underlying capacity shortage gives carriers leverage they have not had since 2021. The question is how long regulatory pressure and driver shortages can hold capacity in check before new entrants find a way back in.