June Import Volume Up 9.7% as Retailers Pull Peak Season Forward

Why are June imports up when April was down 7%?

U.S. import volume is projected to climb 9.7% year-over-year in May and continue rising in June as retailers pull peak season cargo forward to avoid escalating shipping costs and potential tariff penalties. The surge reverses a 7.3% year-over-year decline in April, when ports handled 2.05 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units.

"We have increased our outlook for June cargo volume as retailers bring forward their peak season cargo to mitigate increasing shipping costs as carriers pass along the sharply rising cost of fuel and because of concerns about punitive replacement tariffs," said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, which produces the Global Port Tracker report.

May volume is projected at 2.14 million TEU, up from 1.95 million TEU in May 2025. Last year's May figure was depressed by "Liberation Day" tariffs that slowed imports. This year's pull-forward means more drayage loads hitting the spot market through July, then a drop below 2025 levels into fall as the early peak exhausts retailer inventory budgets.

What the early peak means for drayage and short-haul lanes

The current import surge will likely last into July, Hackett said, with an early peak season that resembles the more recent pattern of raised volume rather than a sharp spike. That means steadier drayage demand out of major port markets through mid-summer, but also means the traditional August-September peak may not materialize. Fleets running port-to-warehouse lanes should see consistent load counts through July, then a potential softening in August as retailers work through inventory brought in early.

April's 2.05 million TEU figure was down 5.1% from March, reflecting normal seasonal patterns. The Port of New York and New Jersey had not yet reported April numbers when the Global Port Tracker data was released, so the actual April total may shift slightly higher.

Fuel cost pass-through and tariff hedging drive the shift

Retailers are accelerating cargo for two reasons: ocean carriers are passing along sharply rising fuel costs, and shippers want inventory on the ground before any additional tariffs take effect. Diesel prices have climbed steadily since March, and ocean freight rates have followed. Bringing cargo in now locks in current rates and avoids potential tariff increases later in the year.

For trucking, the pull-forward means spot rates that hit multiyear highs in May may hold through July on port lanes, but the fall slowdown could be sharper than usual if retailers overbuy in the second quarter. Fleets running import-dependent lanes should plan for a compressed peak and a longer tail into Q4.

Fall volume expected below 2025 levels

The early peak will leave fall import volume below 2025 levels as retailers exhaust budgets and work through inventory brought in during the June-July surge. That means fewer loads out of ports in September and October compared to last year, when the peak stretched later into the season. Drayage fleets that rely on consistent port volume should expect a lull starting in August, with recovery dependent on holiday restocking demand in November.

The year-over-year comparison in May looks strong at 9.7% growth, but that figure is measured against a weak May 2025 depressed by tariff uncertainty. The real test will be June and July volume compared to 2024 and 2023 peaks, which will show whether this is genuine demand growth or just a calendar shift.