Freight Rates Hold Near Record as Capacity Tightens to 43-Month High
ACT Research's June index shows rates at 70.2, down from May's record but still among the strongest in 17 years, while capacity climbs to 55.0 and driver availability stays depressed.
Why are freight rates staying high even as they pull back from May's peak?
Freight rates fell 9.5 points month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted 70.2 in June, down from May's record 79.7, but the June reading still ranks among the strongest in ACT Research's nearly 17-year For-Hire Trucking Index. The index converts monthly carrier responses into a diffusion reading where anything above 50 signals growth. June's 70.2 means rates are still climbing, just at a slower pace than May.
Capacity tightened further in June, climbing 1.5 points to 55.0, a 43-month high. That gain reflects larger, well-run fleets signaling expansion rather than a broad capacity rebound across the industry. Class 8 tractor sales continue running below replacement levels industrywide, keeping total truck count suppressed even as a handful of big carriers add equipment.
What's keeping capacity from flooding back?
Driver availability remains the bottleneck. The Driver Availability Index ticked up to 34.1 in June from 32.6 in May, but stays deeply depressed. A wave of new FMCSA regulations, including nondomiciled CDL restrictions, tighter ELD and registration fraud enforcement, and driver school closures, sent the index to a five-year low of 30.4 in April after the nondomiciled rules took effect in mid-March. The modest May and June upticks suggest near-term stabilization, but ACT Research expects additional scarcity to support higher freight rates.
Fleet purchase intentions held flat month-over-month, with 47% of carriers planning equipment purchases in the next three months, below June's historical average of 53%. Two forces are holding fleets back: carrier profit margins entering 2026 sat at levels not seen since the Great Recession, gutting capital spending, and the roughly six-month lag between spot and contract rate gains left large carriers with limited margin improvement in the first quarter.
When will fleets start buying trucks again?
ACT Research expects expansion to accelerate in the third and fourth quarters as spot rate gains work through to contract rates and carriers replace aging equipment with EPA'27 emissions rules in mind. The gap between spot and contract should close as rate gains continue flowing through, giving larger carriers the margin room to replace older tractors before the new emissions standard takes effect.
For small fleets and owner-operators, the picture is mixed. Spot rates topped contract in June for the first time since 2022, which helps settlement statements in the near term. But the driver shortage and regulatory squeeze mean finding qualified drivers to add a truck stays difficult, and the capital to buy equipment remains tight for carriers that spent the last three years underwater.
What this means for a 5-truck fleet
Rates are holding near record territory because capacity isn't coming back fast enough to meet demand. The June Freight Rate Index at 70.2 is still well above the 50-line that marks flat pricing, meaning rates continue climbing even after the May peak. Driver availability at 34.1 signals ongoing scarcity, which keeps upward pressure on what you can charge per mile.
But the same forces propping up rates make it harder to grow. If you're running five trucks and want to add a sixth, you're competing for drivers in the tightest labor market in five years and facing equipment costs that larger fleets can absorb more easily. The 47% of carriers planning equipment purchases in the next three months is below the June historical average of 53%, meaning most fleets are holding off despite strong rates.
ACT Research expects capacity expansion to pick up in the third and fourth quarters as spot rate gains flow through to contract rates. That timeline suggests the current rate environment holds through summer, but the window for locking in strong contract rates before capacity loosens may close by fall. For small fleets, the play is to capture the rate gains now while driver availability stays depressed, and to plan any equipment purchases around the EPA'27 timeline if you're replacing aging tractors.
