Freight Tonnage Flat in May as Capacity Crunch Lifts Rates

Why are freight rates climbing when tonnage is flat?

Freight demand held essentially flat year-over-year in May, rising just 0.2% according to Breakthrough data. Gains in paper, packaging, and retail offset softness in durable goods, consumer packaged goods, and food and beverage. The rate rally is a capacity story, not a volume story.

Truckload capacity is the dominant rate driver right now, shaped by regulatory enforcement, the broker liability ruling, and rising costs, according to Breakthrough. The same dynamic that pushed dry van spot rates to $2.14 per mile in May continues to tighten the market even as tonnage stalls.

Import volume at major container ports is forecast to hit a new all-time record in July, driven by retailers stocking up ahead of expected tariff increases in August, according to the Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. The Port of Los Angeles saw the busiest June in its 118-year history, moving 1,002,734 Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units. That marks the third time monthly cargo volume has ever exceeded 1 million container units.

"This year's early peak season is expected to continue through July as retailers and other importers prepare for potentially higher tariffs beginning in August and other trade uncertainties," NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. He noted continued supply chain impacts from the conflict in Iran.

The disconnect between ports and domestic freight

Record import volumes at the ports do not automatically translate to domestic truckload tonnage. Much of the container surge reflects inventory front-loading by retailers anticipating tariff changes. That freight hits drayage and intermodal first. The lag between port arrivals and domestic distribution can stretch weeks, and some of the volume may sit in warehouses rather than move immediately to stores.

The 0.2% year-over-year gain in May freight volumes shows domestic demand has not kept pace with the import surge. Paper, packaging, and retail posted gains, but durable goods, consumer packaged goods, and food and beverage all softened. For a small fleet running regional or long-haul lanes, the takeaway is clear: the rate environment is being set by how many trucks are available, not by how much freight is moving.

What's tightening capacity

Breakthrough points to three factors shaping truckload capacity: regulatory enforcement, the broker liability ruling, and rising costs. Regulatory enforcement has accelerated carrier exits. The broker liability ruling has pushed some brokers to tighten carrier vetting, which shrinks the pool of available trucks on certain lanes. Rising costs (insurance, fuel, maintenance, labor) have forced marginal carriers out and discouraged new entrants.

The result is a market where rates climb even when tonnage is flat. Capacity has fallen for seven straight months through June, according to recent industry data. When the number of available trucks drops faster than freight volumes, rates rise. That is the environment small fleets are operating in now.

The tariff wildcard

The import surge ahead of August tariff increases creates a short-term volume spike that may not last. If tariffs take effect as expected, import volumes could pull back in late summer and fall. That would reduce drayage and intermodal demand, and potentially ease some of the pressure on domestic truckload lanes as well.

For a 5-truck or 20-truck fleet, the question is whether the capacity crunch outlasts the tariff-driven import surge. If capacity stays tight through the fall, rates hold. If capacity loosens as import volumes normalize, the rate rally stalls. Right now, the data says capacity is the binding constraint, not demand.

What this means for settlement statements

Flat tonnage and rising rates mean the market is paying for availability, not volume. If you have trucks in service and can cover loads, you are capturing the benefit of tight capacity. If you are sitting on the sidelines or running below capacity, you are missing the window.

The rate environment is being set by how many trucks are on the road, not by how much freight is moving. That dynamic can shift quickly if capacity returns or if the tariff-driven import surge fades faster than expected. For now, the math favors fleets that can stay in service and cover loads in a market where trucks are scarce.