Dry Van Spot Rates Hit $2.14/Mile, Up 31% as Volumes Fall

Why did spot rates jump 31% while freight volumes dropped?

Dry van spot rates hit $2.14 per mile in May 2026, up 31.29% year-over-year and 9.74% month-over-month. Contract rates reached $2.18 per mile, up 9.00% year-over-year. Spot shipments fell to 1.11 million in May from 1.31 million in April. The market is repricing from the supply side: capacity is tightening and rates are climbing before any meaningful recovery in demand has taken hold.

The numbers come from the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index, a quarterly collaboration between U.S. Bank and DAT Freight & Analytics. The report shows rates moved higher even as volumes declined, a divergence the index describes as "a clear indicator of a supply-led transition in the market."

"Freight volumes may appear stable, but costs are telling a different story," said Alex Terry, director of transportation at Veritiv. "As contract rates catch up to spot pricing, shippers face growing exposure to higher transportation spend."

The contract-to-spot buffer just disappeared

The spread between contract and spot rates narrowed from approximately $0.39 per mile to about $0.11 in May. That compression eliminates most of the cushion shippers have historically used to manage cost exposure. For a small fleet running dedicated or contract lanes, this means routing guide alternatives become less effective when a shipper needs backup capacity.

When the buffer disappears, a capacity disruption that would previously have been absorbed by a modest spot premium lands directly on the shipper's budget. That changes how pricing risk is distributed. If you're running a 10-truck fleet and half your book is dedicated, the other half just got more expensive to fill when a contract shipper needs extra trucks.

Linehaul pricing has increased more than fuel costs, indicating that capacity dynamics, not surcharge inflation, are driving the reset. This is a supply story: fewer trucks chasing the same or slightly lower freight volumes.

Contract rates still have room to climb

Spot markets repriced first. Contract rates are following with a lag. That lag does not protect shippers or the carriers running their lanes. It only delays when the cost arrives. The index warns that contract rates still have room to move as they catch up to spot.

"As contract rates continue to catch up to spot, cost exposure may increase even without a corresponding increase in shipment activity," the report states.

For a carrier negotiating contract renewals in the next 90 days, this is the data point to bring to the table. Spot rates have already moved 31% year-over-year. Contract rates are up 9%. The gap is closing, and the direction is clear.

LTL carriers hold yield as shipments fall

While truckload grabs the headlines, less-than-truckload pricing has shown a different kind of resilience. Old Dominion reported first-quarter LTL shipments per day declined 7.9% year-over-year, yet revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel increased 4.4%. XPO posted a similar result, with North American LTL yield excluding fuel up 4.0% and shipments per day rising 3.0%.

Those results show pricing discipline over volume chasing. LTL carriers are holding yield even as freight activity softens. The report attributes this to the structural mechanics of LTL pricing: revenue per hundredweight frameworks, contract cycles, and freight classification that insulate rates from real-time spot market swings.

For a small fleet considering whether to add LTL consolidation or partner with an LTL carrier for partial loads, the takeaway is that LTL pricing is not following the same volatility as truckload spot. The yield discipline means LTL rates are less likely to drop if truckload spot softens again.

What this means for a 5-truck fleet

If you're running spot, you've already felt the 31% year-over-year increase in your settlement statements. If you're running contract, the repricing is coming. The 11-cent spread between contract and spot means there's almost no premium left for shippers to pay when they need backup capacity. That reduces the number of high-rate spot loads available when you need to fill empty miles.

The supply-side story also means this repricing is not driven by a surge in freight volumes. Capacity is leaving the market faster than demand is falling. That dynamic can reverse quickly if volumes pick up or if capacity exits slow. Monitor the spot-to-contract spread closely and stress-test your budget for continued upward pressure in contract pricing.

For fleets negotiating dedicated or contract lanes, the data supports asking for higher rates. Spot has already moved 31%. Contract is up 9%. The gap is your leverage.