Carriers Report Improved Conditions as Freight Market Optimism Grows
Survey data shows carriers seeing better market conditions in 2026 and agreeing the downcycle is ending.
Are carriers seeing freight market recovery in 2026?
Carriers are reporting improved market conditions this year and largely agree with the emerging consensus that trucking is recovering from a prolonged downcycle, according to new survey data.
The findings mark a shift in carrier sentiment after more than two years of soft rates and tight margins. The survey captures carrier views on current market conditions and expectations for the remainder of 2026.
The optimism aligns with recent tonnage data showing sustained year-over-year gains. Truck tonnage held at 117.8 in April, the highest level since fall 2022, with four straight months of increases. March posted the strongest year-over-year gain since October 2022.
But the improved sentiment comes against a backdrop of continued carrier failures. More than 20 trucking companies filed bankruptcy in May as soft rates persisted, including a 92-year-old Georgia carrier with 302 trucks that liquidated.
What the sentiment shift means for small fleets
For owner-operators and small fleets, the survey data suggests carriers across the board are seeing conditions stabilize. That tracks with what shows up on load boards and in settlement statements: spot rates remain below 2022 peaks, but the floor appears to be holding.
The question for a 5-truck or 20-truck fleet is whether improved sentiment translates to rate movement. Tonnage gains without corresponding rate increases mean more freight is moving, but not necessarily more revenue per mile. Contract rates have stayed flat for three months running in many lanes, even as volume ticks up.
Carrier optimism also reflects capacity leaving the market. Bankruptcies and fleet contractions through 2024 and 2025 tightened supply, which should eventually support pricing. But the lag between capacity exits and rate recovery can stretch months, and small fleets burn cash waiting for the turn.
The survey data does not break out optimism by fleet size or segment. Large carriers with diversified customer bases and contract portfolios may be seeing different conditions than spot-market-dependent owner-operators. A national sentiment survey can mask regional and lane-level variation that determines whether a small fleet's next settlement check goes up or stays flat.
