Reefer Rejection Rate Hits 21%, Spot Rates Up 28% Year to Date
One in five refrigerated loads is being turned down as fall harvest and diesel costs push reefer spot rates 28% higher year over year, triple the contract-rate gain.
Why are reefer rejection rates running above 20%?
Reefer tender rejections stood at 21.44% nationally as of Oct. 20, meaning carriers are turning down roughly one in five refrigerated loads. That figure has held near 21% since mid-September, when it peaked at 22.13% on Sept. 17 and briefly dipped to 20.89% on Sept. 24. The sustained rejection rate signals tight capacity in the temperature-controlled segment even as broader freight demand softens.
The broader truckload market shows similar carrier leverage. The overall rejection index has hovered between 13% and 14% since August, sitting at 13.9% as of Oct. 20. Accepted tender volume slipped about 2% week over week to approximately 11,000 on the index, a sign of muted demand that has yet to translate into meaningful rate relief for shippers.
Where capacity is tightest
Geography drives the elevated reefer rejection numbers. The tightest conditions are concentrated in the Pacific Northwest and across parts of the Midwest, regions where refrigerated volumes have also climbed. Julie Van de Kamp attributed the pressure to fall harvest commodities: apples, potatoes, and onions moving out of the Pacific Northwest, and poultry and other protein products shipping from South Dakota, Iowa, and nearby states ahead of Thanksgiving demand.
Southern California remains below the national average for rejections but has been tightening, a pattern Van de Kamp said typically precedes peak-season freight activity.
Reefer spot rates up 28%, contract rates up 9%
Refrigerated spot rates are up approximately 28% year to date, while reefer contract rates have risen about 9% year to date. The reefer segment has outpaced the broader market in 2024. Van de Kamp noted that diesel costs make the economics of refrigerated freight especially sensitive, since reefer units must keep trailers running continuously, a cost burden that doesn't ease when the trailer is empty or parked.
For a small fleet running reefer, the 28% spot-rate gain is offset by diesel that has climbed sharply this year. The fuel surcharge you collect is tied to the national average, but the reefer unit burns fuel around the clock whether you're loaded, empty, or waiting at a dock. That continuous burn means diesel price swings hit harder on reefer than dry van, and the 9% contract-rate gain may not cover the fuel delta if you locked rates early in the year.
Winter demand could push rates higher
Van de Kamp flagged the coming winter as a factor that could sustain or push rates higher. Reefer equipment is not only used to keep cargo cold in warm months but also to protect temperature-sensitive freight from freezing once ambient temperatures drop below 32 degrees, demand that extends well into the first quarter. "I expect to see refrigerated rates continue to rise even more than van rates," she said.
The operational implication for a 5-truck reefer fleet: if you're running Pacific Northwest produce or Midwest protein lanes, the rejection rate tells you brokers are scrambling for capacity. That gives you room to negotiate spot rates above the posted average, especially as winter protection demand layers in. If you're on contract, the 9% year-to-date gain is lagging spot by 19 percentage points, which means shippers with annual agreements locked earlier in the year are likely to reset higher when those contracts renew.
What this means for small fleets
Freight volumes slipped week over week, but carriers have maintained the leverage to be selective about what loads they accept, keeping rejection rates firm across modes. For a reefer operator, the 21% national rejection rate is a proxy for pricing power. When one in five loads is being turned down, the loads that do get covered are moving at rates high enough to justify the fuel burn and the wait time.
If you're running dry van and considering a switch to reefer, the 28% spot-rate gain and sustained rejection rate make the case for the equipment investment, but only if you can stomach the diesel exposure and the seasonal volatility. Reefer rates tend to spike in Q4 and Q1, then soften in spring when produce season ends and winter protection demand drops off. The year-to-date numbers reflect that seasonal pattern compressed into a single average.
For dispatchers, the Pacific Northwest and Midwest are the lanes where rejection rates are running hottest. If you're booking loads out of Washington, Idaho, South Dakota, or Iowa, expect tighter capacity and higher spot offers than the national average. Southern California is tightening but still below the national rejection rate, which means outbound LA reefer loads may offer better availability and slightly softer rates than the upper Midwest or Northwest.
The broader truckload market's 13.9% rejection rate and 2% volume decline suggest demand is not driving the rate gains. Capacity is. Carriers are leaving the market, and the ones still running have the leverage to turn down loads that don't pencil. That dynamic holds across equipment types, but it's most pronounced in reefer, where the fuel cost and seasonal demand swings amplify the pricing pressure.
