Accepted Loads Down 4%, Rejection Rates Still Near 14%

Why are rejection rates still high when accepted volumes are falling?

Accepted tender volumes fell more than 4% over the past four weeks to 9,518, the lowest level outside a holiday week since January. Yet the national tender rejection rate has barely moved and is holding near 13.9%. A year ago, the market entered peak season with rejections under 6%, and accepted volumes were roughly 2% higher. That means the market has regained little, if any, efficiency over the past 11 months.

Fewer accepted loads after nearly a year of elevated rates is not what most expected. In the early phase of COVID, carriers appeared to hit their limit with accepted volumes around 11,500 in the fall of 2020. Rejection rates were near 25%, a sign that demand was well beyond what carriers could handle. By the spring of 2021, carriers were accepting more than 10% more loads, even with rejection rates still elevated. That market was certainly tighter than today's. Even so, most would expect accepted volumes to have improved by now after months of elevated rates.

The COVID cycle was demand-driven, this one is supply-driven

The two cycles differ in several ways. The biggest difference is that the COVID cycle was driven more by rising demand than by falling supply. Tender volumes rose nearly 50% year over year from September 2019 to September 2020, and accepted volumes rose 20%. That surge quickly used up all the slack in what had been an oversupplied market.

The current cycle seemed to appear almost out of nowhere. It first showed up during the 2025 holiday season, when rejection rates and spot rates ran well above the previous three years. Many still questioned it, because trucking demand was actually weaker. Winter Storm Fern in late January was the second catalyst. It pushed tender rejections and spot rates higher, and neither has meaningfully retreated since. Again, demand wasn't the driver. Limited capacity was.

Barriers to entry are keeping new carriers out

The other major difference from the last inflationary cycle is that barriers to entry are much higher now. English language proficiency enforcement, stricter rules on non-domiciled CDLs, and tougher immigration policies are keeping a large pool of potential drivers out of the industry. The Montgomery v. Caribe ruling has an indirect effect on drivers, because brokers are now less likely to use carriers with poor safety records. As of this past summer, close to 2% of carriers with substandard safety scores had been removed from service, according to GenLogs.

Diesel prices are outpacing spot rates

Diesel prices have spiked at times, making it hard for smaller carriers to manage cash flow. Retail diesel prices are up 73% year over year. Dry van spot rates are up a still-impressive 43%, but they haven't kept pace with fuel over the past few months. That gap squeezes carrier profitability, a pressure that was largely missing in the COVID era, when diesel prices actually fell in 2020.

Carriers that made it through the difficult stretch from mid-2022 to late last year are hesitant to invest in growth. Borrowing costs are much higher, and the low-cost government lending that helped carriers during COVID isn't available.

What this means for small fleets

Supply always moves more slowly than demand, and it now faces more headwinds than in any recent cycle. The combination of regulatory barriers, fuel cost pressure, and tight credit means new capacity isn't coming online the way it did in 2020 and 2021. For small fleets, that translates to continued rate support but also continued fuel margin pressure. The 30-point gap between diesel inflation (73%) and spot rate inflation (43%) is eating into settlement checks even as rates stay elevated.

The market is heading into the holidays with almost no slack. Rejection rates have held above 13% since late winter, more than double the year-ago level. Even with economic concerns, transportation procurement teams should prepare for a market that stays tighter for longer, into 2027.