Spot Rates Up 20% — But It's Tariff Panic, Not Recovery

Why are spot rates up 20% in May 2026?

The national dry van spot rate — measured by the FreightWaves SONAR National Truckload Index, a seven-day moving average of booked spot transactions from the TRAC consortium, inclusive of fuel — is tracking up more than 20% year over year as of mid-May 2026. Flatbed volume is running nearly 50% above year-ago levels. The Outbound Tender Rejection Index is hovering near 14%, a level not seen consistently since the post-COVID unwind of 2022 and meaningfully above the 7% to 8% threshold that historically signals sustained upward pressure on spot pricing.

Those are real numbers. That is real money on the table. But the surge in freight movement that started in late April and is accelerating through May is not the organic demand recovery that small carriers have been waiting three years to see. It is, in large part, a tariff front-load.

What tariff front-loading means for your settlement statement

Shippers who import goods from China, Mexico, and Canada have been scrambling to pull inventory forward before tariff rates lock in or escalate further. Front-loading is a pattern that plays out every time a major tariff wave arrives. Importers anticipate the cost increase, rush to bring goods in before the effective date, and freight volumes spike.

The refrigerated market has tightened ahead of produce season, with year-over-year rate gains in the same range as dry van. Flatbed is being pulled hard by construction material and steel movement as reshoring and infrastructure activity collide with a shrunken supply of available equipment.

The load board is busy because shippers are panicking — not because the market recovered.

How long the rate bump lasts

Front-loading creates a temporary demand surge followed by a cliff. Once the tariff takes effect or importers finish pulling inventory forward, the freight stops. The volume that would have moved over the next three to six months gets compressed into a few weeks, then the lanes go quiet.

FreightWaves SONAR documented this pattern in early 2025 when the reciprocal tariff packages first landed. Spot rates spiked, rejection rates climbed, then both fell back as the import wave passed. The current surge follows the same script.

For a small fleet, the operational question is whether to chase the spot-rate bump or hold contract lanes. The tariff-driven surge pays better per mile right now, but it evaporates fast. A 5-truck carrier that drops contract freight to chase spot loads in May could find itself scrambling for backhaul in June when the front-load ends and spot rates collapse.

What the rejection index tells you

The 14% Outbound Tender Rejection Index means carriers are turning down roughly one in seven contracted loads tendered to them. That rejection rate signals tight capacity — carriers have enough spot freight at higher rates that they can afford to refuse lower-paying contract loads.

Historically, rejection rates above 7% to 8% correlate with sustained upward pressure on spot pricing. But that correlation assumes organic demand growth, not a tariff-driven inventory pull. When the rejection index climbs because of front-loading, the rate pressure reverses as soon as the import wave ends.

A dispatcher watching the rejection index climb should read it as a short-term opportunity, not a market turn. The index will fall back when the tariff panic subsides.

The flatbed and reefer picture

Flatbed volume running 50% above year-ago levels reflects two forces: reshoring activity pulling construction material and steel, and a shrunken supply of flatbed equipment after three years of carrier exits and deferred equipment purchases. That combination creates real tightness in flatbed lanes, and the rate gains there may hold longer than dry van because the equipment shortage is structural, not just tariff-driven.

Reefer tightness ahead of produce season is seasonal and expected. The year-over-year rate gains in refrigerated freight reflect normal produce-season dynamics layered on top of the tariff surge. Reefer carriers should see stronger rates through June and July, but the tariff component of that strength will fade.

What changes for a 10-truck fleet

If you run dry van and you have contract lanes paying $2.00 per mile all-in, and spot loads in the same lane are paying $2.40 right now, the $0.40 delta is real money. On a 500-mile run, that is $200 more per load. Over a week, that is $1,000 to $1,500 more per truck if you can keep them moving.

But the spot loads paying $2.40 today will pay $1.80 in July when the front-load ends and importers sit on the inventory they just pulled forward. The contract lane paying $2.00 will still pay $2.00.

The play for a small fleet is to take the spot-rate bump without abandoning contract relationships. Run spot when it pays, but do not burn bridges with contract shippers who will still have freight when the tariff panic ends. The carriers that chase the surge and drop all contract freight will be the first ones sitting idle in June and July.

If you run flatbed, the equipment shortage gives you more leverage. The flatbed rate gains are less likely to collapse because the capacity crunch is real and not just tariff-driven. But even flatbed carriers should expect some rate softening once the reshoring and infrastructure activity normalizes.

The difference that matters

The difference between a tariff-driven freight surge and an organic demand recovery is duration. Organic demand recovery means shippers need more freight moved because consumers are buying more goods, factories are producing more output, and the economy is growing. That demand sustains for months or years.

Tariff-driven front-loading means shippers are pulling future demand into the present to avoid a cost increase. The total amount of freight does not change — it just moves earlier. Once the inventory is in the warehouse, the freight stops.

A small fleet that mistakes front-loading for recovery will make bad decisions. They will chase spot rates, drop contract lanes, maybe add a truck or hire a driver, and then find themselves overextended when the surge ends.

The load board is busy. Spot rates are up 20%. Rejection rates are climbing. But the surge is temporary, and the cliff is coming. Plan accordingly.