Spot Rates Jump 4¢ Dry Van, 10¢ Reefer as All Three Segments Climb

How much did spot rates rise last week?

Dry van spot rates rose nearly 4 cents last week, reefer climbed almost 10 cents, and flatbed added 8 cents — the third consecutive week all three major equipment types posted gains. Dry van now averages $2.00 per mile nationally, reefer sits at $2.69, and flatbed rates extended a multi-week growth streak despite an 8.5% drop in posted loads.

Year-over-year comparisons show dry van rates up 25–38% depending on the data set, reefer up 27–33%, and flatbed up 31%. The spread reflects different methodologies between FTR and DAT, but both sources confirm the same directional move: rates are climbing and the gap to last year is widening.

Dry van load volume rose 8.2% while rates climbed

Dry van loads posted on spot boards rose 8.2% last week even as rates moved higher — a reversal of the usual inverse relationship between volume and price. FTR pegged the dry van spot rate increase at nearly 4 cents, while DAT reported a 1-cent gain to $2.00 per mile. The difference likely stems from FTR's inclusion of fuel surcharges in its linehaul figure, while DAT strips fuel out. Either way, the direction is the same: dry van spot rates are up, and shippers are posting more loads at those higher prices.

For a small fleet running predominantly dry van, the $2.00 national average translates to roughly $1,400 gross on a 700-mile run before fuel. That's $70–$140 more than the same lane would have paid a month ago, depending on the route. The question is whether the volume increase signals genuine demand growth or shippers scrambling to cover loads after capacity tightened in April — a dynamic RXO attributed to carrier exits rather than freight growth in its Q1 earnings call.

Reefer posted the largest weekly gain at 10 cents

Refrigerated spot rates jumped almost 10 cents last week, the sharpest single-week move of the three equipment types. FTR reported reefer loads up 6.9% while rates climbed to levels 33% above last year. DAT's national linehaul figure rose 3 cents to $2.69 per mile — 27% higher year-over-year.

The 10-cent FTR move likely includes fuel, which has been climbing since mid-April as diesel hit record seasonal levels. Strip fuel out and the linehaul gain is closer to DAT's 3-cent figure, but either way reefer is outpacing dry van on a percentage basis. Produce season is ramping in California and the Southwest, which typically tightens reefer capacity through June. A 5-truck reefer fleet running the Salinas–Atlanta lane is now looking at $2.85–$3.10 per mile all-in, compared to $2.20–$2.40 a year ago.

Flatbed rates rose 8 cents despite an 8.5% load drop

Flatbed spot rates climbed 8 cents last week even as posted loads fell 8.5% — a sign that available capacity is tighter than load-board volume suggests. Year-over-year, flatbed rates are up 31%. The equipment type has now posted gains for multiple consecutive weeks, extending a streak that began in mid-April as construction activity picked up and AI data center projects shifted freight patterns to interior states.

Flatbed's resilience in the face of falling load counts points to a supply-side story: carriers who survived the 2023–2024 downturn are holding rates, and shippers are paying rather than waiting for cheaper capacity that isn't materializing. For an owner-operator running a stepdeck, the 8-cent weekly move translates to $56 more per 700-mile run — enough to cover the fuel-price increase and still net a margin gain.

What the year-over-year spreads mean for settlement statements

The 25–38% year-over-year rate increases sound dramatic, but context matters: spot rates a year ago were near the bottom of the post-2021 correction. A dry van rate that's 38% higher than May 2025 is still below the 2021 peak and roughly in line with 2018–2019 levels after adjusting for fuel. The difference is that fuel is now $5 per gallon in many markets, so the net-of-fuel linehaul isn't delivering the same take-home as it did six years ago.

For a 10-truck fleet, the year-over-year comparison translates to an extra $700–$1,400 per truck per week in gross revenue if the fleet is running 70% spot exposure. That's $7,000–$14,000 more per week across the fleet, or $28,000–$56,000 per month. Subtract the fuel-cost increase — diesel is up roughly $1.20 per gallon year-over-year in most regions — and a truck averaging 6 mpg and running 2,500 miles per week is paying an extra $500 per week in fuel. The net gain is real but narrower than the headline rate increase suggests.

How long the rate climb lasts depends on capacity, not demand

The three-week rate climb across all equipment types is the longest sustained spot-market rally since early 2022, but the underlying driver is capacity contraction rather than freight-volume growth. Shipper spending rose 21.8% year-over-year in Q1, but most of that increase came from higher rates and fuel costs, not more loads. Import volumes remain 36% below the 2021 peak, and domestic manufacturing output is flat to down in most categories.

What's changed is the supply side: capacity fell 10.9 points in April, the second-fastest decline on record, as small fleets exited and larger carriers parked trucks. The result is a tighter market even without demand growth. For small fleets still operating, that's good news in the short term — rates are climbing and loads are available. The risk is that the capacity exits were driven by unsustainably low rates in 2024, and if demand softens before new capacity enters, the rate floor could drop again.

The bill for a small fleet: higher rates, tighter fuel margins

A 5-truck fleet running 70% spot and 30% contract is now grossing roughly $10,000–$12,000 more per week than it was in early April, assuming the fleet is running full and capturing the national average rate increases. That's $40,000–$48,000 more per month. Subtract the fuel-cost increase — call it $2,500 per truck per month at current diesel prices and 10,000 miles per truck — and the net gain is $27,500–$35,500 per month for the fleet.

That's enough to cover deferred maintenance, catch up on insurance premiums that climbed 15–20% at renewal, and start rebuilding cash reserves depleted during the 2023–2024 rate trough. It's not enough to expand the fleet or add trucks unless contract rates follow spot higher — and contract rates are up 8% since fall, but the lag between spot and contract means most small fleets won't see meaningful contract-rate improvement until Q3 renewals.

The operational takeaway: if you're running spot-heavy, the next eight weeks are the window to bank cash. Produce season and construction activity will keep reefer and flatbed tight through June, and dry van should hold as long as capacity stays out of the market. If you're running contract-heavy, use the spot-rate data to push for mid-year adjustments on lanes where your settlement is still 15–20% below the spot equivalent.