Capacity Still Shrinking as Rejection Rates Hold at 13.5%
Accepted tender volumes near 2019 levels, but rejection rates more than double what they were then. The supply-side correction is still running.
Why is this freight cycle taking so long to tighten?
Accepted truckload tender volumes averaged 9,800 last week, close to 2019 levels. Rejection rates hovered at 13.5%. That's more than twice the 5% to 6% rejection rates carriers posted in 2019 and last fall at similar demand levels. The gap between then and now is capacity, and the data shows the supply-side correction is still running.
The Accepted SONAR Truckload Volume Index measures the volume of loads carriers accept under existing rate agreements. The SONAR Truckload Rejection Index tracks the percentage of tendered loads carriers turn down. When both metrics fall together, that signals demand deterioration, not capacity growth. That happened in July. When accepted volumes rise and rejections fall, capacity is growing or the market is getting more efficient. When accepted tenders stay flat and rejections climb, capacity is eroding. That pattern showed up in October 2024 and October 2025.
Recent Q2 2026 earnings reports show no evidence of fleet growth. Most carriers reported annual declines in active units. Class 8 orders are up this year, but that's off an abysmal 2025 comparison, and both ACT and FTR cite fleet replacement, not growth, as the primary driver.
What's keeping capacity from growing
Carriers are coming off one of the longest and most challenging freight markets since the Great Recession in 2009. Cash reserves are low and debt is high. Shippers have been using intermodal more frequently because of its cost savings relative to trucking. That shift pulled some demand out of the truckload market without adding capacity back in.
Demand-side conditions tend to be more volatile and move the market faster. Supply-side shifts are much slower, which is why it took more than three years for the market to correct the dramatic oversupply that followed COVID. Accepted tender volumes are down from their 12-month highs, but they're still close to where they were in 2019, lower than most of the past four years except for last October and November.
Rejection rates were below 5% for most of 2019 and below 6% last fall. Roughly the same demand, but with more than twice the tightness now. The difference is the number of trucks available to cover loads.
What happens if demand holds
While demand deterioration is still possible, the data suggests there's more room for it to grow than to contract. Risks skew toward further tightening rather than rapid softening. Demand growth, rail disruptions, intermodal rate increases, and continued government pressure on capacity all point the same way.
This cycle still has a ways to go if the goods economy holds up. The supply-driven nature of the current market means the correction will continue to move slowly. For a small fleet, that translates to a longer runway before spot rates soften again, assuming freight volumes don't collapse first.
The rejection rate at 13.5% is still well below the peaks seen during tight markets in 2021 and 2022, when rejections climbed above 20%. But it's also more than double the sub-6% rates that prevailed when the market last felt loose. The gap between accepted volumes and rejection rates is the clearest signal that capacity is still shrinking, not growing.
