Spot Rates Hit $3.55, Supreme Court Ruling Could Push Truckload to $5

Will spot rates break $4 per mile this week?

Spot rates hit $3.55 per mile May 19: 14 cents below the all-time high of $3.68, and capacity is not flowing in to relieve the tightness that began during road check week. Memorial Day historically creates a surge as shippers push product out ahead of the holiday and carriers take time off, and capacity is expected to tighten through the rest of the week. The previous high in this cycle was $3.61 last week, and there is no structural reason rates could not push another 14 cents through the all-time record.

But the bigger story is not seasonal. The Supreme Court's decision last week in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC is going to reshape how brokers select carriers, how much insurance small fleets need to carry, and what rates look like when the dust settles.

What the Supreme Court ruling changes for small fleets

The Court ruled that brokers can be held liable for negligence in selecting carriers, meaning a broker who hires a carrier with a poor safety record can now be sued alongside that carrier if a crash occurs. For small fleets, this creates two immediate effects: brokers will tighten vetting standards, and carriers with clean CSA scores and higher insurance limits will command a premium.

Fleets that have invested in compliance, clean inspections, up-to-date insurance, no out-of-service violations, now have leverage. Brokers who previously shopped on price alone will now pay more for carriers who reduce their legal exposure. Fleets with spotty records or minimum insurance will find fewer loads available, which tightens the pool of capacity brokers are willing to use.

Why capacity is tightening faster than expected

Capacity did not return after road check week, and the Memorial Day holiday is pulling available trucks off the board. Shippers are pushing freight out ahead of the long weekend, and drivers are taking time off. The combination of seasonal demand and a smaller pool of broker-approved carriers is compressing supply.

The all-time spot rate high of $3.68 per mile was set during the pandemic freight surge. Rates hit $3.61 last week, the highest in the current cycle, and climbed another 4 cents to $3.55 by May 19. If capacity continues to tighten through the week, breaking the all-time record is not only possible but likely.

The $5-per-mile scenario

The Supreme Court ruling introduces a structural change that could push rates well beyond seasonal highs. If brokers begin requiring higher insurance limits, $2 million or $5 million instead of the $1 million minimum, the cost of operating a truck increases, and carriers will pass that cost through in the rate. If brokers also reduce the number of carriers they are willing to work with, the remaining capacity becomes more expensive.

A move to $5 per mile would require both sustained demand and a sharp reduction in the number of carriers brokers are willing to hire. The ruling creates the conditions for that reduction. Whether demand holds long enough to push rates that high depends on how quickly shippers adjust to higher freight costs and whether the economy can absorb the increase.

What this means for a 5-truck fleet

If you run clean equipment, carry higher insurance limits, and have a strong CSA score, you are now in a better negotiating position than you were two weeks ago. Brokers who need capacity and want to limit their legal exposure will pay more for carriers who reduce their risk. If you have been running at or near the $1 million minimum, expect brokers to ask for proof of higher coverage, and expect to pay more for that coverage.

If your CSA score is marginal or you have recent violations, expect fewer load offers. Brokers who previously took a chance on borderline carriers now have a legal incentive to pass. The ruling does not change FMCSA enforcement, but it changes how brokers enforce their own standards.

The rate environment through summer

Spot rates have climbed steadily since April, driven by capacity exits and enforcement tightening. The Supreme Court ruling adds a new layer: brokers are now legally motivated to shrink their carrier networks, which reduces the supply of available trucks even if total truck count stays flat. If that dynamic holds, rates will stay elevated through summer, not because demand is surging, but because the pool of broker-approved capacity is smaller.

Contract rates have also firmed, up 8% since fall as capacity stayed tight and tender rejection rates remained elevated. If spot rates continue to climb, contract rates will follow, shippers who locked in lower rates earlier in the year will face pressure to renegotiate, and carriers who held out for better pricing will have more leverage.

The bill for higher insurance

If brokers begin requiring $2 million or $5 million in liability coverage, the cost increase for a small fleet is significant. A $1 million policy for a clean five-truck fleet typically runs $30,000 to $50,000 per year. A $2 million policy can cost 50% more, and a $5 million policy can double or triple the premium. That cost has to come out of the rate, or it comes out of the owner's margin.

Carriers who already carry higher limits will not face that cost increase, but they will face competition from fleets forced to upgrade. The advantage goes to fleets who invested in higher coverage before the ruling, they are already paying the premium, and they are now competing in a market where that premium is the new baseline.

Why this rate move sticks

Seasonal rate spikes typically reverse when the holiday ends and capacity returns. This one is different. The Supreme Court ruling is not a temporary event: it is a permanent change in how brokers assess risk and select carriers. Even if spot rates pull back after Memorial Day, the structural shift toward higher insurance requirements and tighter carrier vetting will keep rates elevated relative to the pre-ruling baseline.

For small fleets, the takeaway is simple: clean CSA scores, higher insurance limits, and strong safety records are now worth more than they were two weeks ago. If you have those, you are in position to capture higher rates. If you do not, the cost of getting them just went up, and the cost of not having them is fewer loads.